ON the eve of the AFL season, we look at the teams set to finish in the middle of the table.
In our quest to find value bets for each team in the competition this season, we have already reviewed the AFL’s cellar dwellers and as the teams improve, so too do their odds.
Here are our predictions, odds and best bets for 2016.
7th: Richmond Tigers
Last season: Fifth
Premiership odds: $15 with CrownBet.com.au
Top four: $3 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top eight: $1.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
2016 win line: Over 13.5 wins $1.80 with CrownBet.com.au
Coleman Medal favourite: Jack Riewoldt $12 with WilliamHill.com.au
Brownlow Medal favourite: Trent Cotchin $21 with Sportsbet.com.au
Rising Star favourite: Corey Ellis $21 with CrownBet.com.au
Our tip: Richmond to make the top eight $1.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
Will it finally be Tiger time in 2016? Many thought they could surprise and win the flag last year, but then they bombed out in the finals. A win in the post season is a bare minimum for coach Damian Hardwick to keep perhaps the most pressure packed job in the AFL and we think the Tigs are capable. They didn’t make any major moves, but the cattle is there. There likes of Brandon Ellis and Reece Conca stepped up to join Dustin Martin Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt at the head of the class and improvements from some of those on the cusp players in 2015 should hold them in good stead for 2016.
8th: Greater Western Sydney Giants
Last season: 11th
Premiership odds: $41 with WilliamHill.com.au
Top four: $6.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top eight: $2.40 with Sportsbet.com.au
2016 win line: Over 10.5 wins $2.05 with CrownBet.com.au
Coleman Medal favourite: Jeremy Cameron $10 with WilliamHill.com.au
Brownlow Medal favourite: Dylan Shiel $34 with Sportsbet.com.au
Rising Star favourite: Jacob Hopper $17 with CrownBet.com.au
Our tip: Steve Johnson to kick more than 33.5 goals for the season $1.90 with Sportsbet.com.au
Stevie J booted 30 goals for the Cats last season, rotating through the midfield. The ageing champ has headed north to add some experience to the Greater Western Sydney club and should play as a permanent forward. The issue here is going to be how many games he plays and if he will be rested, but if he manages around the 18 to 20 mark, that gun GWS midfield should be able to provide him with enough opportunities to eclipse the 33 goal mark set by sportsbet.com.au. We also like the $2.40 about the GWS to make the finals. The time is now for this club to stand up and be counted after it dipped out on the finals by just two games last season.
Ninth: Sydney Swans
Last season: Fourth
Premiership odds: $12 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top four: $2.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top eight: $1.35 with Sportsbet.com.au
2016 win line: Under 14 wins $1.75 with CrownBet.com.au
Coleman Medal favourite: Lance Franklin $5.50 with WilliamHill.com.au
Brownlow Medal favourite: Daniel Hannebery $12 with Sportsbet.com.au
Rising Star favourite: Callum Mills $7 with CrownBet.com.au
Our tip: Sydney to miss the finals $3.12 with Sportsbet.com.au
Are we nuts? Maybe. But we think this is a side on the downward spiral. The jury is out on the Bondi Millionaire experiment. They have made one grand final with Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett up front, getting annihilated by the Hawks and since then, Tippett has battled injury (and coordination) issues and Franklin has been ravaged by mental health issues. There’s no guarantee he can pull it together in 2016 and that makes the Swans vulnerable. Their spiritual leader Adam Goodes is gone, and that might be a blessing, given the distraction he caused in 2015, but they still have the likes of Dan Hannebery, Kieran Jack and Josh Kennedy in the middle, making them a tough proposition. More a hunch than anything, but the Swans are $3.12 to miss the top eight and we feel that’s good odds for a speculative long term bet.
10th: North Melbourne
Last season: Eighth
Premiership odds: $19 with CrownBet.com.au
Top four: $4.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top eight: $1.73 with Sportsbet.com.au
Coleman Medal favourite: Jarrad Waite $41 with WilliamHill.com.au
Brownlow Medal favourite: Todd Goldstein $51 with Sportsbet.com.au
Rising Star favourite: Trent Dumont $41 with CrownBet.com.au
Our tip: North Melbourne to miss the top eight $2.10 with Sportsbet.com.au
Perennial over achievers North Melbourne surprise every season, but a flag is beyond them. And so is finals. Boomer Harvey is going around again, but there were some signs age was finally catching up to him last season. There doesn’t seem to be the young talent there prepared to have the torch handed to them by the likes of Harvey, Petrie and Dal Santo and that spells trouble for North in 2016. Call us haters, but we think they will miss the finals this time round. But then again, this side has been written off before.
11th: Adelaide Crows
Last season: Seventh
Premiership odds: $31 with WilliamHill.com.au
Top four: $6.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top eight: $2.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
2016 win line: Under 11 wins $1.83 with CrownBet.com.au
Coleman Medal favourite: Taylor Walker $11 with WilliamHill.com.au
Brownlow Medal favourite: Rory Sloane $67 with Sportsbet.com.au
Rising Star favourite: Wayne Milera $17 with CrownBet.com.au
Our tip: Josh Jenkins to lead the goal kicking $6 with Sportsbet.com.au
What a murderous start to life without Patrick Dangerfield. If Don Pyke makes it through the first six weeks of the season with a couple of wins, the Crows will be doing very, very well. A lot falls on the shoulders of Rory Sloane in the middle, especially with question marks over Crouch. They will need a massive season out of talisman Tex Walker to even come close to finals. Giant key forward Josh Jenkins may take the next step in 2016 and looks value outside of Walker and Eddie Betts for the club’s goal kicking award.
12th: Collingwood Magpies
Last season: 12th
Premiership odds: $18 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top four: $4.50 with Sportsbet.com.au
Top eight: $1.85 with Sportsbet.com.au
2016 win line: Under 12.5 wins $1.95 with CrownBet.com.au
Coleman Medal favourite: Travis Cloke $17 with WilliamHill.com.au
Brownlow Medal favourite: Scott Pendlebury $26 with Sportsbet.com.au
Rising Star favourite: Darcy Moore $9 with CrownBet.com.au
Our tip: Adam Treloar to be All Australian $6 with Sportsbet.com.au
The Pies grand plan for world domination continues in 2016, with a mountain of young talent to be blooded. Midfield Rolls Royce Adam Treloar is a huge in from Greater Western Sydney, but we’re not falling for the hype just yet. Plenty of pundits are saying the additions of Treloar, Jeremy Howe and James Aish will tip them over for a finals finish, but we’re not biting. Collingwood always has a huge weight of expectations on its shoulders, and often people get sucked in by the confidence of the club’s legion of fans. Their young talent is still very youthful, with the likes of Jordan De Goey, Matthew Scharenberg and Tim Broomhead needing more time, and while the top end – Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and company – is elite – more time is needed for these Pies to make a dint in the finals. One more year, Pies fans, one more year.
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