Preseason action is in the books, final roster cuts are being made and the regular season starts on Thursday when the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers. And yes – Tom Brady will be suiting up for the home opener.
Every week I’m going to provide my free NFL predictions and I’ll keep track of how I’m performing.
Dolphins vs. Redskins point spread prediction
Kick-Off: Sunday, September 13th 2015 at 1:00pm ET
Stadium: FedExField in Landover, Maryland
The Washington Redskins open up the season at home against the Miami Dolphins.
Let’s take a look at the point spread odds:
- Miami Dolphins -4 (-110) vs. Washington Redskins +4 (-110)
Miami opened up as a -2.5 point favorite, but have been bet up to -4 points already and this line will continue to increase, as nearly everyone is hammering Miami. The Dolphins are getting 95% of the early point spread action in this game.
Washington are a mess and there’s no way the Dolphins shouldn’t cover against the spread (ATS).
Kirk Cousins is the starting QB for the Redskins, but this isn’t an ideal situation for him. The Redskins have a terrible o-line again – last year they ranked 31st in sacks allowed (58) — and the Dolphins will have a dominating pass rush.
Ndamukong Suh will require double teams – opening up the field for Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.
Cousins has some strong performances in the NFL, but in his career he has a lacklustre 59% completion percentage, plus he has thrown 19 INT’s compared to 18 TD’s. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins hold the Redskins to single digits.
I’m a bit worried about the Dolphins offense, as Ryan Tannehill will be working in new WR’s. Greg Jennings may not have much left in the tank, but I’m excited about Kenny Stills and believe he can emerge as a #1 WR.
- Best Bet: Miami Dolphins -4 (-110) at Bovada.lv
Giants vs. Cowboys money line predictions
Kick-Off: Sunday, September 13th 2015 at 8:30pm ET
Stadium: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
I have two bets on this game – I’m betting on the Giants +7 (-135) and on the Giants ML.
I’m surprised the Dallas Cowboys are such big favorites against the New York Giants.
- New York Giants ML +215 vs. Dallas Cowboys ML -255
Dallas expected any RB to succeed with the o-line they have built, but that wasn’t the case during preseason and now the running game could be a problem. Darren McFadden has been bumped up to RB #1, but does he have anything left?
Tony Romo is going to be under pressure, but I expect him to have mild success against a Giants secondary that ranked 18th against the pass last season (241.0 PYPG). The Giants lost several veteran contributors in the secondary too.
However, we know what happens when Romo is under pressure, he tends to make bonehead decisions.
Eli Manning had a great 2014 and he’s expected to have another big year. The Giants ranked 7th in passing yards (267.0 PYPG). Adding Shane Vereen adds another dimension to the pass game, especially on 3rd downs.
Dallas have won the last four head-to-head match-ups – they swept the season series in 2013 and 2014. However, two of those games were decided by a FG and another game was decided by just 5 points.
The Cowboys will regress and I believe the G-Men will steal a win on Sunday Night Football (SNF) in Arlington. This is my best NFL money line underdog in week 1 and the odds couldn’t be better.
- Best Bet: New York Giants ML +215 at 5Dimes.eu
NFL week 1 teaser picks
I’m a huge advocate of betting NFL teasers, as point spreads are often extremely tight and tough to beat.
Each week I’ll share my best NFL teaser pick using the lines at 5Dimes, as they have the widest range of teaser options.
- Steelers +17.5, Jaguars +13, Ravens +14.5, Giants +17 & Eagles/Falcons Over 44.5
This is a 10-point NFL teaser and it pays +180 odds. There’s no need to be greedy and hunt for a huge payout. You can bet on NFL parlays for bigger payouts – teasers are a great way to make consistent albeit smaller payouts.
Make sure you bet on the parlay early this week, as the Steelers play the Patriots on Thursday Night Football (TNF).
Brady is playing, but the Steelers offense is led by Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Le’Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, but the Steelers will have enough of a pass attack to keep this primetime game within 17 points.
The Ravens and Giants should both easily cover ATS as well.
Baltimore heads on the road in week 1 against Denver and they’ll keep this game within 2 TD’s easily. Peyton Manning is a year older and the Broncos lost some weapons. Both teams are good and this will be a highly contested match-up.
The toughest pick is the Jaguars +13 against the Panthers. Jacksonville is at home and I believe Blake Bortles will build on last season. Carolina lost Kelvin Benjamin for the year to injury and this offense is now in trouble.
NFL week 1 parlay picks
I’m taking it easy on parlays for the opening week, as a lot of the games are tough.
It takes a good 2-3 weeks until we know where teams stand at the start of every NFL season.
- Dolphins ML, Bengals ML & Giants +7
The parlay pays out at +310 odds at the 5Dimes Sportsbook. I’ve explained earlier why I expect the Dolphins and Giants to perform well in week 1. The Cincinnati Bengals are the third pick and they’re on the road against the Oakland Raiders.
Oakland are improved, but Cincinnati should run away with this game in the 2H.
Complete NFL week 1 betting odds
Steelers vs. Patriots – Point Spread: NE -7 & O/U: 52 Points
Packers vs. Bears – Point Spread: GB -6.5 & O/U: 50 Points
Chiefs vs. Texans – Point Spread: HOU -1 & O/U: 40.5 Points
Browns vs. Jets – Point Spread: NYJ -3 & O/U: 40 Points
Colts vs. Bills – Point Spread: BUF -2.5 & O/U: 46 Points
Dolphins vs. Redskins – Point Spread: MIA -4 & O/U: 43 Points
Panthers vs. Jaguars – Point Spread: CAR -3 & O/U: 41 Points
Seahawks vs. Rams – Point Spread: SEA -4 & O/U: 41 Points
Saints vs. Cardinals – Point Spread: ARI -2.5 & O/U: 48 Points
Lions vs. Chargers – Point Spread: SD -3 & O/U: 45.5 Points
Titans vs. Buccaneers – Point Spread: TB -3 & O/U: 41 Points
Bengals vs. Raiders – Point Spread: CIN -3 & O/U: 43.5 Points
Ravens vs. Broncos – Point Spread: DEN -4.5 & O/U: 49 Points
Giants vs. Cowboys – Point Spread: DAL -6 & O/U: 51.5 Points
Eagles vs. Falcons – Point Spread: PHI -3 & O/U: 55.5 Points
Vikings vs. 49ers – Point Spread: MIN -2.5 & O/U: 41.5 Points