THIS isn’t just another Australia vs. New Zealand test match…this is the 2015 Rugby World Cup final and the world’s two best teams will do battle this Sunday morning at Twickenham.
Both teams have looked impenetrable throughout the World Cup so far with perfect 6-0 records and if you were ever going to have a punt on a game of rugby, this would be the one.
The All Blacks are looking to re-write the history books by winning back-to-back Rugby World Cups and they will need to beat their trans-Tasman rival in order to do so.
This is the first time these two teams have met in the World Cup final and as history shows, there is nothing between them when it comes down to it.
Bookmakers have the All Blacks as firm favourites in the head-to-head market, but there isn’t much separating the team in the points spread market so we aren’t the only one’s thinking this game will be tight.
Australia vs. New Zealand betting markets and tips
New Zealand are holding firm in the head-to-head market whilst backers of Australia will be loving the price they are getting.
The All Blacks are currently $1.41 to win – which is their highest head-to-head price this World Cup, but we’re expecting the majority of support to come for the Wallabies.
There has been plenty of that support for the Wallabies, but mostly in the points start market.
New Zealand (-6.5) – $1.97
Australia (+6.5) – $1.84 at WilliamHill.com.au
The line shows that Australia are being well supported with the +6.5 points head start as most punters will be expecting a close contest.
Over the past five games between New Zealand and Australia, the Australia +6.5 would have covered on three occasions. Australia drew with New Zealand in 2014, lost by one in the Bledisloe Cup decider later that year and they won 27-19 in Sydney earlier this season.
The All Blacks have been in great form this tournament, but there is rarely much between the southern hemisphere sides and it could come down to which team gets the lucky bounce.
New Zealand does hold sway over the 154 tests played between the two sides. The All Blacks have won 105 with seven draws and that bodes well for head-to-head punters.
With one of the best winning strike rates in world sport, the All Blacks have been a good betting option for punters and the odds in this game aren’t overly short.
$1.41 at Sportsbet.com.au is a good inclusion in multi-bets and we think the experience of the All Blacks will shine on Sunday morning.
Why New Zealand can win
New Zealand are saying farewell to a raft of players which includes Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. To think the All Blacks would lose on such an occasion just doesn’t seem right.
The experience of winning the 2011 World Cup will give them that added boost when the whistle blows. The Australian side has plenty of experience in big games, but there are none bigger than this.
Many experts are saying the fitness of the All Blacks is incredible, and it is, but their biggest asset is their bench. When you have players such as Beauden Barrett and Sonny Bill Williams on the bench, it’s a daunting task for any defence that was hoping for an easier task.
The substitutions have made a huge impact already in the World Cup for New Zealand and when the game gets tight towards the end, expect these players to make their impact.
Sonny Bill is best known as a set-up player, but we think he might crash the line in the dying minutes. He is currently $5 to score a try at CrownBet.com.au.
New Zealand aren’t the best at the breakdown as they like to commit only a couple of players, but this makes it harder for the opposition to break the defense. We expect the All Blacks to play sensible rugby to start, before they give the outside backs a chance to show their skills.
Why Australia can win
There’s never doubting the confidence of the Australian rugby team and that’s their biggest asset.
The Wallabies bring an attacking mindset to all of their games and they are the best in the world at the breakdown.
With both David Pocock and Michael Hooper in the side, Australia are a ferocious team at the breakdown and this forces the referee to blow his whistle. New Zealand have problems in this area with players giving away penalties and this is where Australia can dominate.
Australian winger Adam Ashley-Cooper turned back the clock and found his try-scoring form against Argentina and that could speak the back line a touch. With injury clouds hanging over a few of their heads, the backs need to keep up with New Zealand’s and Ashley-Cooper is their main threat.
If Australia can win the breakdown and knock over a few penalties, they can keep this game close and edge out the defending champions.
Tip: Australia +6.5 at WilliamHill.com.au
Wallabies vs. All Blacks Man of the Match market
Sportsbet.com.au released their Man of the Match market on Friday morning with All Blacks captain and retiree Richie McCaw the current co-favourite at $4.50.
This is great value in our opinion because if the All Blacks were to win the Rugby World Cup, Richie McCaw would likely be given the sentimental award. That’s not to say the other retiring All Blacks don’t deserve it, but that’s usually how these things work.
Dan Carter is the equal favourite at $4.50 with Bernard Foley and David Pocock the favourites for Australia at $7. If Australia are to win, we think the honour could go to Matt Giteau, who will likely have to kick many penalty goals to win.
Richie McCaw – $4.50
Dan Carter – $4.50
Bernard Foley – $7
David Pocock – $7
Michael Hooper – $15
Kieran Reid – $18
Brodie Retallick – $18
Matt Giteau – $18 at Sportsbet.com.au
Scott Fardy – $22
Ben Smith – $22
Nehe Milner-Skudder – $22
Ma’a Nonu – $22
Aaron Smith – $22
Jerome Kaino – $24
Conrad Smith – $26
Israel Folau – $28
Will Genia – $30
Tevita Kuridrani – $30
Drew Mitchell – $30
Adam Ashley-Cooper – $30
Sam Whitelock – $30
Dane Coles – $30
Stephen Moore – $40
Beauden Barrett – $40
Joe Moody – $51
Sam Cane – $65
Matt Toomua – $65
Kane Douglas – $65
For a full list, head to Sportsbet.com.au*
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