While the 4th round of the US Open is not yet complete, as of Monday there are four players on the men’s side and women’s side, who have made it to the last eight.
On the men’s side Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin del Potro are the betting favorites in their respective matches and if they win it will be an anticipated rematch of the Wimbledon quarterfinals, where Nadal won in a five-set thriller.
US Open 4th round betting tips:
Matches played on Tuesday, September 4 from 4PM EST
Rafael Nadal to win 3-0 -454.55
Serena Williams to win first set -250
Sloan Stephens to win 2-0 +110
Combined parlay total at 5Dimes +373
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Leg 1 – Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Nadal is the reigning U.S. Open champion and 9th seed Dominic Thiem stands in his way on his route to the semifinals. Nadal beat Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3, 6-3, 6-7 (6-8), 6-4 in the 4th round and Thiem beat 5th seed Kevin Anderson 7-5, 6-2, 7-6 (7-2).
This match is a rematch of the French Open final where Nadal beat Thiem in straight sets. These players have met three times this season with Nadal winning twice with the loss coming at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Madrid. All time Nadal has won seven of 10 matches facing Thiem.
Thiem was not on top of his game needing five sets in his 2nd round match and four sets in his 3rd round match where he faced two unseeded players. Now he sets his sights on Nadal, who is gunning for his 4th U.S. Open title. Both players are solid on the baseline and this is the first ever matchup between these players on the hard court with the 10 all-time matches all on clay.
Nadal serve has been very strong in the tournament and his return has been fantastic. He will have his chances for breaks in this match and control the tone early. Almost want to go with him winning 3-0, but Thiem is dangerous and was more than impressive in taking out 5th seed Anderson in his last match. In the parlay taking the safe route and betting on Nadal to win outright.
Tip: Nadal to win at -454.55 with 5Dimes
Leg 2 Serena Williams vs. Karolina Pliskova
Williams is the 17th seed in the U.S. Open and while Pliskova is the 8th seed Serena is the pretty big betting favorite. In the 4th round Williams beat Kaia Kanepi 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 and Pliskova beat Ashleigh Barty 6-4, 6-4.
In Williams’ last match she dropped a set for the first time in the tournament. She may have a little payback in mind, as she lost in the U.S. Open’s semifinals to Pliskova in 2016. They have only met twice all-time splitting the two matches. Williams has won the first set in all of her matches and except for the first round the first sets have not been close. In her last match she only took 18 minutes to win the first set 6-0.
Pliskova may put up a fight in this match, but Serena will get off to another good start, which is why the solid pick is for her to take the first set.
Tip: Williams to win first set at -250 with 5Dimes
Leg 3 – Sloane Stephens vs. Anastasija Sevastova
Stephens is the defending U.S. Open champion and she has won three of her four matches, including the last two in straight sets. In the 4th round she beat 15th seed Elise Mertens 6-3, 6-3 and Sevastova beat 7th seed Elina Svitolina 6-3, 1-6, 6-0. Three of Sevastova’s four matches in the tournament, including the last two, have gone to three sets.
Last season en route to the U.S. Open title Stephens beat Sevastova in three sets. She also beat her in the only match up this season and was impressive doing it in a 6-2, 6-2 triumph in the quarterfinals of the Canadian Masters. In the three all-time meetings Stephens has won twice.
Stephens has looked great in the Big Apple so far and just like last season’s quarterfinals she will take down Sevastova. Stephens converted 72% of her first serve in her last match and while Sevastova was solid in the return in her last match she will have issues with the American’s serve.
Tip: Stephens to win 2-0 at +110 with 5Dimes
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