RONDA Rousey defends her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title this Saturday in Melbourne, Australia against 34-year-old Holly Holm.
Rousey, who has single-handedly transformed women’s MMA, looks to take her professional record to 13-0 and bookmakers are giving Holly Holm little chance of causing what would be the biggest upset in UFC’s recent history.
Holm brings a boxing background into the fight with 33 professional boxing wins to her name, but fighters with higher credentials have tasted defeat to Rousey and Holm isn’t expected to be much of a challenge.
Fight fans would love to see Holm put up a fight and perhaps even progress through to Round 2 of the fight, but the firm favourite with bookmakers is Rousey to win in Round 1 and she’s unbackable in the head-to-head market.
This eagerly-awaited fight headlines UFC #193 at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne and with plenty of undercard fights to bet on, punters should have no problem finding some good value this Saturday.
Rousey vs. Holm betting markets
Punters are used to seeing Ronda Rousey as the short favourite, but the -2000 odds make the champion almost unbackable in this fight.
We’re expecting to see some recreational money placed on Holly Holm at +1000 with BetOnline.com, and those odds are great value, but backing such a big underdog has its risks.
Holm isn’t expecting to win this fight in the slightest and she would need to adopt a stand-up style to potentially frustrate Rousey. Holm has great punching ability, but we haven’t seen much of a ground game and that’s where Rousey will be wanting to get this fight.
Some experts are saying that Rousey has a better punch than Holm after knocking Beth Correia to the ground in her most recent fight, but Holm was an accomplished boxer and we give her the advantage if they trade blows.
What most bettors aren’t expecting is for this fight to go the distance. The five-round fight has very little chance of ending in a decision with bookmakers offering +1800 (Rousey) and +2500 (Holm) to win via a points decision.
Rousey vs. Holm Round Betting market:
Rousey Round 1 – (-275)
Rousey Round 2 – (+600)
Rousey Round 3 – (+1200)
Rousey Round 4 – (+2200)
Rousey Round 5 – (+3300)
Holm Round 1 – (+2800)
Holm Round 2 – (+3300)
Holm Round 3 – (+4000)
Holm Round 4 – (+6600)
Holm Round 5 – (+6600)
Draw – (+6600)
History tells us that Ronda Rousey will win this fight in the first round and the bookmakers have set their prices accordingly.
Bettors are getting a very good price if Holm can last longer than one round so the +600 for Round 2 at BetOnline.com looks like a good option.
It would take something special for Holm to score the win, so taking the +1000 in the head-to-head market seems a much better value bet than picking which round Holm will win in.
The Total Rounds market also sees a lob-sided market with Under 1.5 the firm favourite.
Under 1.5 rounds – (-400)
Over 1.5 rounds – (+300)
If Holly Holm can last more than two rounds with Ronda Rousey, she has outlasted some of the best UFC women fighters in history. Rousey has had an average win time of just over 30 seconds and that doesn’t bode well for punters taking the +300 for the over.
Rousey vs. Holm Tale of the Tape
Record: 12-0 (6-0 UFC)
Weight: 135 pounds
Reach: 67 inches
Fighting style: Judo, boxing
Last five fight results:
Bethe Correia – KO (34 seconds)
Cat Zingano – Submission (14 seconds)
Alexis Davis – KO (16 seconds)
Sara McMann – TKO (66 seconds)
Miesha Tate – Submission (58 seconds)
Record: 9-0 (2-0 UFC)
Weight: 135 pounds
Reach: 70 inches
Fighting style: Boxing
Last five fight results:
Marion Reneau – Decision
Raquel Pennington – Decision
Juliana Werner – TKO (110 seconds)
Angela Hayes – Decision
Nikki Knudsen – TKO (78 seconds)
Ronda Rousey has the obvious advantage in the Tale of the Tape based on her quick submissions and knockouts, but she is giving height and reach to Holm.
Holm is the more imposing fighter standing up and the 70-inch reach should play to her advantage. If Holm is going to test Rousey, she will need to use that reach and keep Rousey at bay.
The problem for Holm is that if she reaches out with her arm to keep Rousey from taking her down, Rousey has enough strength to get that arm in an armbar and end the fight right there.
Rousey vs. Holm fight information and predictions
Date: Saturday, November 14, 2015
Time: 11:45pm Eastern Time (approx). UFC #193 coverage starts at 10pm.
Location: Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Australia
Pay-Per-View pricing: $59.99 (HD), $49.99 (SD)
TV: Undercard on FOX Sports 1 and UFC.com Press Pass
Where to bet: Bovada.lv – sign-up here in just a few seconds!
Ronda Rousey should stroll through this fight, just like she has all throughout 2014 and 2015. The current champion simply has too much speed and power for any opponent to handle.
The TV coverage will say things like “Holm is her biggest test to date”, but in reality she’s not, and Rousey should end this fight very quickly.
She isn’t the type to warm into the fight and she smells blood from the ring of the bell. There is no value betting Rousey in the head-to-head markets, but the -275 for a Round 1 victory looks like a nice parlay option.