Who: Brisbane Broncos vs. Sydney Roosters
When: Friday, 25th September, 8:00pm
Where: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Only four teams remain and what a cracking first preliminary final we have in store this Friday as the Brisbane Broncos host the Sydney Roosters.
This game has been touted as the ‘final before the final’, but both games this weekend are worthy of the championship game and there has already been a lot of public interest in the betting.
The Broncos have been well supported, despite being the underdog in the market. The strong win for the Roosters against the Bulldogs has seen them open as the favourite, but the week off for the Broncos would have done them some good.
The sold-out crowd at Suncorp will be rocking for this one, so get your bets in and enjoy what should be one of the best NRL games this season.
Broncos vs. Roosters odds and tips
Broncos – $2.10 (+2) at Sportsbet.com.au
Roosters – $1.75 (-2)
When the markets opened, the Roosters were $1.70 favourites, but we have seen good money placed on the Broncos since.
The Broncos have a very good record at home, winning 96 of 162 games overall, but the Roosters have won four from six so playing away from home is no issue for them.
There was very little between these two sides this season, with the Broncos winning 22-18 in Round 6 and the Roosters getting their revenge four months later with a hard-fought 12-10 win to snatch the minor premiership away from the Queensland side.
The Roosters did look a touch one dimensional against the Bulldogs. They continually resorted to putting up the high ball, which worked well, but the experience of Darius Boyd at the back for the Broncos will diffuse that situation.
The Sydney-based side have a stellar back line, but it isn’t firing on all cylinders and everyone knows the Broncos team is a well-oiled machine.
We expect another close game, like the past two contests, so the margin betting is where punters can secure a profit.
Big Win Little Win market:
Broncos 1-12 ($3.20)
Broncos 13+ ($5.50)
Roosters 1-12 ($3)
Roosters 13+ ($4)
We’re pretty confident neither team will win by 13 points or more. There has been only two points separating the teams this season and this should be a tight struggle again.
Backing both Broncos 1-12 and Roosters 1-12 can be a good way to make money if our predictions come true. If you spend $10 on both options and either team wins by less than 13, you will make at least 50 cents per $1 invested.
The total match points market line is currently set at 36.5. In the two games between these sides this season, the total has been 40 and 22 points. The bookmakers are trying to find the middle, but we aren’t expecting either team to be giving up points easily.
This Queensland supporter might be a touch bias, but in my opinion the Broncos are the much better side and they should come away with the win at home. Take the under 36.5 at $1.90 if you’re a totals bettor, but taking the head-to-head line of $2.10 at Sportsbet.com.au presents much better value.
To win and score a try market
This market gives punters the option of selecting both the winning team and matching that with a possible try scorer.
Here are some of the best value options for both teams this Friday.
Darius Boyd to score and Broncos win – $6
Corey Oates to score and Broncos win – $3.50
Justin Hodges to score and Broncos win – $6
Anthony Milford to score and Broncos win – $5 at Sportsbet.com.au
We like the young half Anthony Milford to score in this game. He has come a long way this season and he is starting to be much more confident in his running skills. Look for him to be scoring off a Kodi Nikorima dummy-half run late in the game.
Daniel Tupou to score and Roosters win – $3.50
Michael Jennings to score and Roosters win – $4.50
Shaun Kenny-Dowall to score and Roosters win – $3.10
Aidan Guerra to score and Roosters win – $8
It’s not surprising the find Shaun Kenny-Dowall as the current favourite across all try-scoring options. The Roosters winger has had his off-field troubles, but his prowess in the scoring ranks is still top class.
Expect one of the classy Roosters’ backs to score off a James Maloney high bomb.
Team lineups and first tryscorer odds
Mitchell Pearce comes back into the side and that’s the only change to both lineups from their last game. The Roosters halfback has scored only one try this season, so his inclusion won’t make much difference in the first tryscorer market.
Brisbane Broncos team lineup:
1. Darius Boyd – $26
2. Corey Oates – $9.50 at CrownBet.com.au
3. Jack Reed – $18
4. Justin Hodges – $23
5. Jordan Kahu – $10
6. Anthony Milford – $17
7. Ben Hunt – $17
8. Sam Thaiday – $41
9. Andrew McCullough – $34
10. Adam Blair – $34
11. Alex Glenn – $26
12. Matt Gillett – $20
13. Corey Parker – $41
14. Jarrod Wallace – $34
15. Mitchell Dodds – $51
16. Jo Ofahengaue – $0
17. Kodi Nikorima – $20
Sydney Roosters team lineup:
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – $13
2. Daniel Tupou – $9.50
3. Michael Jennings – $14
4. Blake Ferguson – $14
5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall – $8.50
6. James Maloney – $23
7. Mitchell Pearce – $21
8. Sam Moa – $34
9. Jake Friend – $41
10. Dylan Napa – $51
11. Mitchell Aubusson – $0
12. Aidan Guerra – $26
13. Boyd Cordner – $21
14. Jackson Hastings – $26
15. Isaac Liu – $41
16. Kane Evans – $34
17. Sio Siua Taukeiaho – $34
Broncos vs. Roosters – the final word
Both teams are out to secure their place in the 2015 NRL premiership title game and fans and punters alike should get a great display of skill.
Both teams possess weapons all across the park, whether it be in the forwards or the backs, and that usually makes for an exciting contest.
From the Roosters, we expect them to use their quick play-of-the-ball style to get over the advantage line. They haven’t been able to find the space in the backline for the likes of Jennings and Tuivasa-Sheck to utilise, so expect many more high kicks from both James Maloney and Mitchell Peace.
If the Broncos can diffuse the high kicks, they should be too strong for the Roosters. As we saw in the Broncos vs. Cowboys game a fortnight back, the Broncos can play up-tempo if they need to. Typically they like the bash it up in the forwards before spreading it wide, but they can adapt to whatever their opposition throw at them.
Despite a solid team lineup, not many expected the Broncos to be in this position, but under super coach Wayne Bennett, anything is possible.
Tip: Broncos $2.10
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