Sunday, March 6 from 2pm AEST – Las Vegas, Nevada
THE biggest fight of 2016 is taking place this Sunday at UFC #196 where current featherweight champion Conor McGregor comes up against Nate Diaz.
Both fighters have motor-mouths, but the public and the punters are getting behind the Irishman who has revolutionised the sport since arriving on the scene last year.
McGregor was meant to be fighting Rafael dos Anjos in an attempt to become a dual-weight champion, but after dos Anjos broke his foot, Nate Diaz stepped up to the challenge for the now welterweight fight.
Diaz has been his usual self in the build-up, prompting McGregor to ‘fight’ at the press conference.
Nick Diaz (Nate’s brother and fellow fighter) has come out with some strong words about McGregor who describes his training regime as a joke, fueling the fire for their upcoming fight this Sunday.
“They give you a fight with the f**king new guy, who’s supposed to be the sh*t, but he ain’t working with nobody, he ain’t working with no black belts, he ain’t had no legitimate sparring, had no legitimate trainer,” Diaz said.
Bookmakers and punters don’t seem to agree with Diaz’s thoughts. McGregor as the firm $1.20 favourite for this fight, coming in from $1.40.
Punters in the Nate Diaz corner will be happy with the $4.50 price at Sportsbet.com.au and his unique fighting style could pose a problem for McGregor. Diaz is the older fight at 30-years-old and he has quality wins against Michael Johnson, Donald Cerrone and Melvin Guillard.
McGregor’s record features win against Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes and Dustin Poirier, but Diaz brings a different aspect to the octagon. Diaz is a feisty fellow with a rather large chip on his shoulder. His brash style and untamed mouth have landed him in plenty of trouble, but McGregor is no saint and that’s what makes this fight so intriguing.
McGregor knocked Jose Aldo out in 13 seconds the last time he fought and punters are predicting a similar result.
McGregor vs. Diaz method and round combo odds
Punters are focusing on backing Conor McGregor and we don’t think he will get beaten either. We suggest punters capitalise on a good betting situation and instead of taking the $1.20 for McGregor to win outright, there is some good value in betting the method and round combo.
McGregor KO in Round 1 – $2.40
McGregor KO in Round 2 – $4.33
McGregor KO in Round 3 – $8.50
McGregor KO in Round 4 – $15
McGregor KO in Round 5 – $26
It’s unlikely the fight will go the distance so we’re leaning towards a knockout in the first three rounds. Diaz has a bit of ‘snake’ about him, meaning he likes to dance around the cage and avoid the big hits, but McGregor has that attacking flair which negates that.
McGregor to win by submission is paying a handy $17 which is a good saver bet. He will be looking to add some new pieces to his puzzle and a submission win would catch everyone by surprise.
McGregor is predicting an early knockout and we’re leaning towards Round 2 at $4.33 with CrownBet.com.au.
McGregor vs. Diaz finishing time betting
This is only for Round 1 bettors and if you think Conor McGregor can score the quick knockout then this betting option if for you.
Sportsbet are offering three different sections for this bet and we’re focusing on the ‘Finishing Time’ category. It features five betting options which will make the opening round even more exciting for punters.
Time of fight to end in Round 1:
00:00-00:59 – $6.50
01:00-01:59 – $8.00
02:00-02:59 – $8.50
03:00-03:59 – $9.50
04:00-05:00 – $10
McGregor’s last fight lasted all of 13 seconds which would gift punters $6.50. We think if he is to knockout or submit Diaz in quick time, it might be towards the end of the round when Diaz has taken plenty of abuse.
The last two options are at good value and punters are still getting a good price if you back both options.
Punters can also bet on a split second round option with McGregor finishing Diaz from 00:00-02:29 of Round 2 ($6.00 at Sportsbet) and also 02:30-05:00 at $6.50. This is a good option for punters who are attracted to both round 1 and round 2 knockouts.
McGregor vs. Diaz exotic bets
To touch gloves:
Yes – $3.20 at Sportsbet.com.au
Are these two fighters friends? Most certainly not. Will they touch gloves and show some mutual respect? Possibly, and Sportsbet are offering a good price for this to happen.
We might see a classic verbal abuse session instead of them touching gloves, but miracles happen.
Yes – $8.00
Judges deducting a point isn’t as common in MMA like it is in boxing, hence the odds, but Diaz has no problems with giving away a point in order to get a knockout.
He’s crazy to put it nicely and for exotic punters, this wouldn’t be the worst option to cash up on.
UFC #196 multi-bet
We’re going to take the shorts on Conor McGregor to win the fight for this multi-bet. The $1.20 is small, but multied with our other options, it results into a nice potential payout.
Holly Holm ($1.33) to beat Miesha Tate
Ilir Latifi ($1.50) to beat Gian Villante
Corey Anderson ($1.33) to beat Tom Lawlor
Erick Silva ($1.47) to beat Nordine Taleb
Five-leg multi = $4.68 at Bet365.com.au