AS we showed with the Golden Globes, betting on award shows can be profitable and we’re preparing for the big one next Monday afternoon at the 88th Annual Academy Awards.
So far this award season we’ve seen The Revenant and Leonardo DiCaprio dominate and the bookmakers are predicting a similar result at the Oscars. An Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu-directed film, The Revenant is the short favourite to take home the night’s top prize after scooping top honours at the Golden Globes and the BAFTA’s.
Along with Brie Larson (Room), DiCaprio is at unbackable odds to win Best Actor ($1.01 at Bet365.com.au) so we’ll focus on the chances to win big money this Monday. The Best Picture award isn’t a clear-cut race and bookmakers have kept a few films at safe money.
Best Supporting Actor and Actress are popular categories which appear wide open and we think we’ve found a smokey at good odds in a forgotten category.
Oscars Best Picture betting
The Revenant – $1.44
Spotlight – $3.50
The Big Short – $6.00
Mad Max: Fury Road – $67
The Martian – $151
Room – $151
Brooklyn – $251
Bridge Of Spies – $251
There are probably four nominees that shouldn’t be in this category, but we live in an age where even meritocracy needs to get rewarded. Whilst The Martian, Room, Brooklyn and Bridge Of Spies are good movies, they have no chance of winning the top award so we’ll focus on the other four.
Current favourite is The Revenant which has taken most of the awards so far. Spotlight was the early fancy with bookmakers, but after a fruitless award season, the film about the priest underground has taken a backwards step to the ever-popular The Revenant.
We were surprised to see The Big Short at $6.00. The film about the financial crisis in the U.S was a clever movie which was adapted from a novella, but the Oscars committee rarely favour the ‘slick’ styled movies. Films like The Wolf Of Wall Street struggle to win the big awards because the acting isn’t considered great, and that’s where we see The Big Short coming up short.
Mad Max: Fury Road is a visual classic which will likely win awards in other categories, but being a remake it’s tough to see it taking out the top prize. It’s on the fourth line of betting at $67 and it would take a big fan to think it could topple the favourites.
With politics very much involved with the Oscars, we can’t see The Revenant being beaten by the controversial topic that supports Spotlight. The $1.44 at Bet365 is short, but worth betting on.
Best Supporting Actor market
Sylvester Stallone (Creed) – $1.28
Mark Rylance (Bridge Of Spies) – $3.75
Tom Hardy (The Revenant) – $21
Christian Bale (The Big Short) – $26
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) – $67
Who would have thought a spin-off of Rocky would give Sly Stallone another chance at Oscars glory? We certainly didn’t when Creed was released last year, but the Oscars committee love themselves a bit of boxing action.
It took Stallone all of three days to write Rocky which won for Best Picture in 1976 and even though it got rated as one of the worst Oscar-winning films of all time, it kicked off a money-churning franchise which is still going.
Stallone reprises his role as Rocky who is hired to teach Apollo Creed’s son. It’s actually a good storyline and Stallone plays his character well, but should it be that short in the betting? We’re leaning towards no because even though he won the Golden Globe, the Oscars are another story.
Mark Rylance from Bridge Of Spies is our Oscars fancy for Best Supporting Actor. He plays a spy who is interrogated primarily by Tom Hanks and he plays it well. There is more ‘acting’ involved in his character and we think the committee will take notice. Backing Rylance at $3.75 with Bet365.com.au is a good way to go.
Best Supporting Actress betting
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) – $1.44
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) – $4.50
Rooney Mara (Carol) – $5.00
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) – $41
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) – $101
First of all, congratulations to Jennifer Jason Leigh for getting a nomination with The Hateful Eight. Tarentino films are often praised by the Oscars, which includes individual performances, so it’s a nice comeback to the big screen after being relatively unknown for a few years.
Back to the contenders, Alicia Vikander is the odds-on favourite to win for her performance in The Danish Girl and she has fared well in the awards season to date, but look who’s lurking behind her.
Kate Winslet is absolutely loved by the Oscars committee and she’s coming off a win at the BAFTA’s which wasn’t hard to predict. The British actress wins just about every time she’s nominated at the Academy Awards and we think the $4.50 with Bet365 is good value.
Rooney Mara has come in for support at $5.00 which is too short for our liking. We would have had more confidence in backing her Carol counterpart Cate Blanchett had she been included in nominations.
Best Original Screenplay odds and tips
Spotlight – $1.07
Inside Out – $7.50
Bridge Of Spies – $23
Straight Outta Compton – $34
Ex Machina – $51
Spotlight is a very well-written film and it probably deserves to be the favourite in this category, but $1.07 is ridiculously short and we like the look of lovable-animated comedy Inside Out.
The film is almost a shoe-in to win the Best Animated Film and we think it’s good enough to take out this award at $7.50 with Bet365. It is a clever film and the committee should look past the fact that it’s animated, much like they did with Toy Story 3.
Well-written films should be rewarded based on the writing and not the cast, so we think backing Inside Out is a solid chance to make us some cash.