Friday, August 12 from 7.50pm, AEST at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne.
Western Bulldogs: Seventh
Collingwood Magpies: 12th
Western Bulldogs: 13-6
Collingwood Magpies: 8-11
Last five match results:
Western Bulldogs: WWLLW
Collingwood Magpies: WLLWL
Western Bulldogs: $1.38 with CrownBet.com.au
Collingwood Magpies: $3 with CrownBet.com.au
Western Bulldogs: -17.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Collingwood Magpies: +17.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)
THIS is a big game for the Western Bulldogs and means absolutely nothing to anyone at Collingwood, except maybe coach Nathan Buckley.
The Pies coach is back under the blow torch after his charges put out a pitiful effort in the battle of the endangered coaches against Richmond.
After three weeks of intense pressure on Tigers’ coach Damien Hardwick, Buckley’s side’s ineptitude on the weekend has shifted the focus to the Pies figure head.
And he knows he’s under the pump as they go up against a Dogs side that arrested a two-game slide against North Melbourne on the weekend.
“Absolutely I feel pressure,” he said on Fox Footy.
“But I can’t allow it to stress me because if it stresses me, it stresses the players (and) if it stresses the players, it stresses the club.
“And if you introduce that to your preparation, let alone your performance, you’re not going to optimise it.”
He’ll need something better against the Dogs after his side capitulated at the hands of Richmond, 14.8 (92) to 11.11 (77).
They kicked the first three goals of the match and looked like they would cruise to victory, but somehow decided to put the queue in the rack at the 15 minute mark of the first term.
James Aish played one of his better games for the Pies, booting two goals from his 18 disposals, while Jack Crisp and Taylor Adams had 25 touches each, but usually prolific captain Scott Pendlebury was well held to just 17 disposals, before going down with an ankle injury in the last quarter that is putting his spot against the Dogs in jeopardy.
It is touch and go whether he will line up, but if he does, he may not be 100 per cent.
Pendlebury had 32 touches against the Dogs in round 10 – a 21 point loss – but it is Adam Treloar we are keying in on with our player performance bets this week.
Treloar had 31 disposals against the Dogs earlier this season and, while he only managed 24 against the Tigers last week, he will need to carry plenty of the midfield load, especially if Pendles misses.
We like him at $1.72 with Sportsbet to do something he hasn’t done in a month – get 30 or more disposals.
Aish is our guy in front of the big sticks too. He has had 26 and 18 disposals in the past fortnight, booting two goals in each game and may have finally turned the corner after copping plenty of stick from Magpie supporters early on in the season.
He is a juicy $18 to boot the first goal and, given his good form over the past couple, is certainly worth a high risk, high reward flutter at the long quote.
The Dogs got down and dirty against North Melbourne, taking a win despite booting just nine goals.
They suffocated the Kangaroos in the 9.7 (67) to 7.5 (45) victory.
Marcus Bontempelli played perhaps the best 19 disposal performance this season, while Luke Dahlhaus found a mountain of it with 28 possessions – the next best for the dogs was Matthew Boyd and Jason Johannisen with just 22 each.
Dahlhaus is slowly building after returning from injury a couple of weeks ago, so we’re backing him in to increase his production in and claim 30 disposals or more, at better than odds on ($2.10 with Sportsbet.com.au).
The Dogs had an incredible nine individual goal scorers to kick their nine goals against the Roos, so there is not much form to go on, but one guy we really like as a danger is Jordan Roughead.
Considering big Tom Boyd went back to being a complete waste of space, Roughead might just be the big guy who stands up for the Dogs as finals approach.
He will start in the ruck, so he is a massive $26 to do it, but he can and does push forward and if the game is anything like the North clash, goals will be at a premium and he could well snare the first goal.
Player props predictions
First goal scorer – Western Bulldogs:
Jordan Roughead to kick the first goal ($26 with Sportsbet.com.au)
First goal scorer – Collingwood Magpies:
James Aish to kick the first goal ($18 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Disposals tips – Western Bulldogs:
Luke Dahlhaus to have 30 or more disposals ($2.10 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Disposals tips – Collingwood Magpies:
Adam Treloar to have 30 or more disposals ($1.72 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Match result: Western Bulldogs to win ($1.38 with CrownBet.com.au)
Line betting: Western Bulldogs -17.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)
If the Magpies couldn’t get past the Tigers who have absolutely no ticker, how are they going to fare against a wounded Bulldogs side that never gives up and is hungry for success? Not well if you ask us.
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