Sydney Swans: Third
West Coast Eagles: Sixth
Sydney Swans: 3-1
West Coast Eagles: 3-1
Sydney Swans: ($1.65 with WilliamHill.com.au)
West Coast Eagles: ($2.25 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Sydney Swans: -6.5 ($1.91 with WilliamHill.com.au)
West Coast Eagles: +6.5 ($1.91 with WilliamHill.com.au)
TWO men have stood above the rest for Sydney so far in the early part of AFL 2016.
While Dan Hannebery ($4 with sportsbet.com.au to have the most disposals in his group) has set the standard, there’s a new superstar in town, with burly midfielder Luke Parker ($7) taking his game to the next level for the Swans.
Facing off against the West Coast Eagles’ midfield is not going to be an easy task for the in form Swans, but both Parker and Hannebery are more than up to the task and we think that pair will be at the pointy end of the most disposal markets.
Parker kicked off the season with a dominant 40 possession performance against Collingwood, but produced his lowest output of the season in the Swans’ loss to Adelaide on the weekend – but 26 is still nothing to sneer at.
By contrast, Hannebery started slowly with just 21 against the Pies, but he has increased his output in every game this season, before snaring a game high 38 disposals against the Swans.
With Josh Kennedy ($7) spending more time forward, he hasn’t quite hit his usual dizzying heights, while ball magnet Tom Mitchell ($8) has also found himself in the forward line as often as he is in the guts, negating his ability to find the footy as often as the other pair.
The stiffest competition for Hannebery and Parker is set to come from the Eagles’ Brownlow Medal star Matt Priddis ($4).
The curly haired machine might be the game’s most under-rated player, leading the Eagles in the possession count almost weekly.
Like Parker, he started off the season in a blaze of glory, racking up 43 possessions against the Brisbane Lions and, while he missed last week’s clash against Richmond, he is set to line up against the Swans.
Andrew Gaff is equal in the market with Priddis and Hannebery at $4, but the smaller SCG does his predominantly outside game no favours and that means you should look elsewhere.
The verdict: We have tossed this one up and gone with Hannebery. He loves the in and under stuff and the confines of the Sydney Cricket Ground suit him to a tee.
Most disposals group markets
Hannebery, Daniel ($4)
Priddis, Matthew ($4)
Gaff, Andrew ($4)
Kennedy, Josh P. ($7)
Parker, Luke ($7)
Mitchell, Tom ($8)
Shuey, Luke ($12)
Yeo, Elliot ($21)
Jack, Kieren ($3.25)
Lloyd, Jake ($5)
Redden, Jack ($6)
McVeigh, Jarrad ($6)
Lecras, Mark ($8)
Rampe, Dane ($8)
Masten, Chris ($8)
Hutchings, Mark ($12)
Odds provided by sportsbet.com.au
Predicted result: Sydney Swans to win ($1.65 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Line: Sydney Swans at the line -6.5 ($1.91 with WilliamHill.com.au)
The bitter now traditional rivals are once again among the best teams in the AFL and that means you can expect some of the toughest, hardest footy of the round.
The Eagles, despite missing several of their guns, had a very easy run of it against a woeful Richmond last Friday night, hammering them by 68 points, 18.17 (125) to 9.3 (57).
Gaff had a standout performance on the vast expanses of Domain Stadium, with 33 disposals and seven marks, while half back Elliott Yeo returned to form with 25 disposals, nine marks and two goals. Big bustling Jack Darling led the way with four goals for the Eagles, while five others booted two each in an even spread during the rout.
It was a much tougher game for the Swans and the finished on the wrong end of the ledger when they fell short by 10 points against the Adelaide Crows in Adelaide, 16.17 (113) to 15.13 (103).
As mentioned, Hannebery had leather poisoning with 38, while Kennedy had 28 and Parker 26. Lance Franklin and Isaac Heeney booted four goals each. Kurt Tippett had 35 whiteouts and kicked two goals as the side’s primary ruckman.
The Swans are the number one contested ball team this season, averaging over 160 per game – almost 20 more than the West Coast, but they will need to be at the top of their game to reverse last season’s result.
The Eagles whacked them by 42 points in that clash, but the Swans had won eight straight against them before that drought-breaking victory.
And the red and white will be happy to cop this one at home – they haven’t played against the Eagles at the venue since 2010 – that’s six years – but they have won 12 of the 15 matches they have played there and the Eagles haven’t sung their song in Sydney since 1999.
That’s a damning statistic and it forms the basis of our tip for a Sydney win.
The Eagles midfield is good, but this Swans outfit is next level. It is going to take a massive effort from gun ruckman Nic Naitanui – not known for standing up when the heat is on – to help give his men in the middle silver service and negate the Swans’ barrage of gun midfielders. He did, however, manage 41 hit outs in the last outing against the Swans and was adjudged best on ground by the umpires, who gave him the three Brownlow votes. But even a performance like that might not be enough to get the Eagles home in this one.
The huge trip, coupled with the Swans’ intimate knowledge of their home ground makes this a tough proposition for the best sides in the AFL.
We’re sure they will make a fist of it, but the Eagles don’t enjoy the lopsided advantage away from home as they do at Domain Stadium.
Lights out for Power as punters jump sinking Port Adelaide ship
AFL multi tips, exotics & best bets for Round 9, 2015
2016 AFL Grand Final bonuses, free bets & money back specials
Geelong vs. Sydney Preliminary Final line & disposal betting tips
Sydney leads 2016 AFL premiership market as focus turns to finals
Josh Kennedy goal scorer & Coleman tips: Round 22 Eagles vs Hawks
Dalhouse and Treloar disposal betting, AFL Magpies vs. Bulldogs
Richmond vs. Collingwood betting & Dustin Martin disposal tips