Roosters vs. Broncos. Thursday, July 28, 8pm. Allianz Stadium
Points start line:
Roosters +1.5 at Crownbet.com.au
Broncos -1.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet.com.au)
THE Broncos are sliding down the NRL premiership ladder after another loss on Friday night to the Panthers. They have now lost their last three from four and the only win came against the hapless Rabbitohs.
On face value the Broncos should be destroying a team sitting 15th on the ladder, but injuries and a lack of confidence have evened the market up. At full strength the Broncos would be $1.30 chances, but losing Sam Thaiday, Josh McGuire and Matt Gillett has taken its toll.
The Roosters are playing shockingly this season with only three wins from 18 games. They looked uninspired against the Storm and it’s tough to find any positives from the season. One good sign is the play of Latrell Mitchell who has been doing a good job on the wing position as Blake Ferguson switched to fullback.
We think the Broncos will be too good for the Roosters, but we’re more interested in the try-scoring matchups. Both fullbacks Blake Ferguson and Darius Boyd have been in good try-scoring form and we’re targeting both players this Thursday night.
Roosters vs. Broncos first tryscorer market and tips
Sydney Roosters team and odds:
1. Blake Ferguson – $14
2. Daniel Tupou – $10
3. Dale Copley – $20
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall – $17
5. Latrell Mitchell – $11
6. Connor Watson – $26
7. Mitchell Pearce – $26
8. Isaac Liu – $51
9. Jake Friend – $41
10. Dylan Napa – $51
11. Boyd Cordner – $26
12. Mitchell Aubusson – not yet quoted
13. Sio Siua Taukeiaho – $41
14. Sam Moa – $51
15. Aidan Guerra – $34
16. Ryan Matterson – $23
17. Kane Evans – $26
Blake Ferguson has played 16 games this season and scored eight tries. The New South Wales fullback hasn’t quite lived up to expectations placed on him by some, but he has been improving this season and the $14 on offer is good value.
Latrell Mitchell is on the second line of betting for Roosters backers at $11. The star youngster has scored 11 tries from 18 games and despite being moved around in the lineup, he has adapted well and he should be tough for the Broncos defense to stop.
Other try-scoring options include current $10 favourite Daniel Tupou who remains a big threat when the high ball is put up, and also Shaun Kenny-Dowall who will be disappointed with his 2016 form and will be looking to put in a good performance.
Brisbane Broncos team list and odds:
1. Darius Boyd – $15
2. Corey Oates – $7.50
3. Tom Opacic – $18
4. James Roberts – $12
5. Lachlan Maranta – $11
6. Anthony Milford – $12
7. Ben Hunt – $26
8. Jarrod Wallace – $56
9. Andrew McCullough – $41
10. Adam Blair – $56
11. Alex Glenn – $26
12. Matt Gillett – unlikely
13. Corey Parker – $46
14. Herman Ese’ese – $46
15. Jai Arrow – $34
16. Joe Ofahengaue – $46
Darius Boyd has scored seven tries this season and he has done it in style. The top class fullback is steady as she goes on defense, but when he wants to include himself in the game, he will.
He is currently $15 to score the first try of the game which isn’t too bad. We think Boyd will need to show his leadership in this game if the Broncos are to get the job done. That requires Boyd to lead from the front and scoring first will be a tidy start.
Boyd is currently >$2.75 at Sportsbet.com.au to score at any time throughout the game.
Corey Oates is the Broncos biggest try-scoring threat. Oates has scored 12 tries from 14 games and has come a long way in a season. The rangy winger is $7.50 to score first and that’s no surprise to us as he’s always in the thick of it.
$1.57 to score at any time is short, but multi-bet punters will be running this through their weekend NRL bets and it’s not the worst tactic.
Other try-scoring options for the Broncos include Anthony Milford ($2.30) and the speedy James Roberts who needs to start showing his best skills if he wants to remain a Bronco for next season. Expect a big game from the Broncos senior players.
First try-scorer away team betting
Seeing as we think the Broncos will score plenty of tries this Thursday night, the first try-scorer market for the away team is a good betting option.
Corey Oates is currently paying $4 to be the Broncos first try-scorer and that will have a great chance. Being on the wing gives players the best chance to finish off tries and he has been doing that all season.
James Roberts is $6.50 to score first for Brisbane which is a good price being offered by Sportsbet. Players which are paying good money include Tom Opacic ($9.50) and Ben Hunt ($13).
Opacic has had only two games for the Broncos this season and hasn’t scored, but that’s on limited opportunities. Along with Ben Hunt, we are expecting improved performances, especially from Hunt who has shown a lack of intensity over the past few weeks.
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