THE NRL playoffs start with an almighty bang as the minor premiers Roosters take on the Melbourne Storm to see which team advances to the preliminary finals.
This Friday at Allianz Stadium, two of the best teams this season will do battle and the talent on show is mind blowing.
Players such as Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and James Maloney will all take the field and, despite all the attacking prowess, the bookmakers are predicting a low-scoring affair. We think this game will be the most exciting of the weekend and you can make it even more enticing by placing a first try scorer bet with Sportsbet.
They are offering a cash back special (up to $100) if your player scores a try at anytime throughout the game.
Roosters vs. Storm betting markets
As everyone expected, the Roosters are the warm favourites to win as the Storm haven’t won a finals game since 2012.
Roosters backers will take the $1.40 with caution, but a 40 per cent return for the more in-form side is seen as a good bet by many.
Conversely, Storm backers’ eyes will light up at the $3 available as that is the biggest price they have paid all year and when you have Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk as your spine, you should always be confident.
Head-to-head betting market:
Roosters – $1.40
Storm – $3 at CrownBet.com.au
Both prices haven’t changed since the markets opened earlier this week which means there is a steady flow of money for both teams.
Even though the Roosters are probably playing better rugby league at the moment, the price around the Storm is value and punters might latch onto that idea. Expect the $3 quote to drop slightly throughout the week, but there could be a big bet placed on the Roosters to offset that.
Points start/spread odds:
Bookmakers have done the dirty and made the line 7.5. The problem with this line is that if you’re wanting to back the Roosters, but you think 7.5 is too much, you might be forced to back the team you don’t think will win.
If the line was 5.5 then we’d expect about 80 per cent of the head-to-head money to also be on the -5.5 for the Roosters. Covering a 7.5 line means the Roosters will have to win by more than one converted try and a penalty kick, and bookmakers are expecting a low scoring game.
How do we know this? The total has been set at 35.5 which indicates an 18-16 type scoreline. With this understanding, taking the Storm at +7.5 seems the logical play based on what the odds are telling us.
Alternatively, Sportsbet.com.au offer a ‘pick your own line’ option where punters can change the points start margin and odds.
Below are some of the popular alternative line options:
Storm +10.5 – $1.60 at Sportsbet.com.au
Storm +11.5 – $1.59
Storm +6.5 – $1.95
Roosters -5.5 – $1.67
Roosters -9.5 – $2.08
Roosters vs. Storm first tryscorer market
The teams have been confirmed and the first tryscorer market is open. With the Sportsbet special, your player may not score first, but as long as he scores throughout the game, you get your money back.
The beauty of a first tryscorer bet is that it adds some more excitement to the game and the payouts are huge. The current favourite is priced at $7.50 and you can get upwards of $150 for some of the more exotic betting options.
Sydney Roosters team list and first tryscorer odds:
Daniel Tupou – $7.50
Shaun Kenny-Dowall – $9.50
Blake Ferguson – $12
Michael Jennings – $12
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – $12
Boyd Cordner – $17
Mitch Aubusson – $18
Jackson Hastings – $23
James Maloney – $26 ($5 for anytime tryscorer at Sportsbet.com.au)
Kane Evans – $26
Aidan Guerra – $26
Sio Siua Taukeiaho – $31
Sam Moa – $36
Jake Friend – $36
Isaac Liu – $36
Dylan Napa – $41
Suaia Matagi – $51
Melbourne Storm team list and first tryscorer odds:
Marika Koroibete – $11
Matt Duffie – $12 at WilliamHill.com.au
Will Chambers – $17
Cameron Munster – $17
Kurt Mann – $21
Blake Green – $26
Kenneath Bromwich – $26
Tohu Harris – $31
Kevin Proctor – $31
Cooper Cronk – $36
Jesse Bromwich – $41
Cameron Smith – $46
Ryan Hinchcliffe – $51
Nelson Asofa-Solomona – $51
Jordan McLean – $61
Tim Glasby – $76
Christian Welch – $76
Roosters vs. Storm form and history
These two teams have played each other on 29 occasions and the edge is narrowly with the Melbourne Storm. The Victorian franchise have won 15 of 29, but the last time they met they suffered a 24-2 smashing at the hands of the Roosters.
The biggest statistic for the Roosters comes in the stadium stats at Allianz where the Roosters have a 64 percent win rate and the Storm only 36 per cent.
The Roosters come into this match on a very long winning streak and the only team to push them close of late was the Brisbane Broncos 12-10.
They ran away with a 30-0 win over the struggling Rabbitohs last week which ensured they won the minor premiership. A similar thrashing came the week prior when they defeated the Sea Eagles by 36 points.
The Storm have lost one of their past five games – the loss coming shockingly to the Newcastle Knights 6-20.
They rebounded in fine fashion during the sunshine swing where they beat the Cowboys 14-6 and the Broncos 15-8.
The Roosters are on the comeback trail after being knocked out last season and they look the stronger team heading into the playoffs. The Storm have looked good in patches this season and, whilst they don’t look the force of past years, you can never count them out.
We’re suggesting the Roosters at $1.40 with CrownBet.com.au, but we wouldn’t say no to the +10.5 alternative line offered at Sportsbet.
This game has all the makings of a close one and it could come down to which team gets the bounce of the ball late in the piece.
Try scorer betting tips for Brisbane vs. Melbourne, NRL Friday
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