Betting Line: Colts +3
Over/Under: 43.5 points at 888 Sportsbook
It all comes down to the season finale for both the Colts and the Titans, as the winner of this game will advance to the playoffs while the loser will be watching them from home.
The Colts are riding a three-game winning streak and in their last nine games they only have one loss.
Andrew Luck is a big reason the Colts are in the playoff hunt and he had a big game facing the Titans in the earlier matchup with them passing for nearly 300 yards with three touchdowns and he was not picked off. This season Indianapolis is only 3-4 on the road.
The Titans are in the midst of a four-game win streak, but they head into this game with a big question mark. Starting quarterback Marcus Mariota was injured in the last game and he is listed as questionable for this game.
If he cannot go it will be a big blow, but backup Blaine Gabbert did play pretty well when taking over for Mariota in the last game. The defense of Tennessee has a tall task in this game facing Luck and the Colts’ offense, but they have only given up an average of 11.8 points per game in winning their last four games.
These teams met easier this season in Indianapolis where the Colts beat the Titans 38-10.
This season the Colts are 7-7-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 7-8 and the Titans are at 8-7 ATS with an Over/Under record of 7-8.
The favorite has covered the spread in the last four games between these AFC South rivals.
The Colts had a big-time comeback in their last game where they were at home beating the New York Giants 28-27 outscoring them 21-10 in the second half.
Luck had 357 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception and threw the game-winning touchdown with only 55 seconds left to seal the win. T.Y. Hilton had 138 receiving yards and Marlon Mack did not help Luck much with 34 rushing yards after rushing for 139 yards in his previous game.
The Titans have a solid pass defense, but did not play that in the earlier loss to the Colts.
Overall, they rank seventh in the league defending the pass and 14th defending the run. However, in their last game they did give up 161 yards on the ground.
In their last game, the Titans were at home and while they were down most of the game they beat the Washington Redskins 25-16 with two late interceptions including taking one for a touchdown as time expired. Mariota and Gabbert each passed for just over 100 yards in the game, but Gabbert threw a touchdown while Mariota did not.
Still, if he is not ready to play it will be a big blow to Tennessee.
Titans’ running back Derrick Henry has totaled 408 rushing yards in two games and in the win over Washington he rushed for 84 yards.
He only had 41 yards on the ground in the earlier loss to the Colts, where the Titans were down big early and had to go to the air.
Tennessee has to feed him the rock in this game not only to move the chains, but to keep Luck and the Indianapolis offense on the sidelines. Henry will be facing the strength of the Colts’ defense, which is their run defense that ranks a solid eighth in the league.
Indianapolis Colts betting trends
- 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team that has a winning record
- 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a win
- Under record of 8-3 in their last 11 road games
Tennessee Titans betting trends
- 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that has a winning record
- 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games
- 7-2 ATS in their last nine games facing teams from the AFC South
- Over record of 4-1 in their last five games
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
It really does not matter who starts under center for the Titans, as the Colts are the pick in this game. While Tennessee is the slightly hotter team, Indianapolis has Luck on their side with Andrew Luck, who will have a good game.
He played well in the rout of the Titans earlier this season and while I don’t see a rout in this game the Colts will win and cover and head to the post-season.
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