Anderson’s backers cashed in at +800, as one of the best to ever grace a Wimbledon court was forced out of the tournament, perhaps for the final time.
Anderson will get some much-needed rest on Thursday, then on Friday he and the other men’s semifinalists will get back on the court. Punters looking for value in the men’s semifinals should focus on Anderson’s fatigue level relative to his opponent’s and Novak Djokovic’s superior grass-court abilities relative to Rafael Nadal’s.
Note: men’s semifinals will not start before 1pm London time on Friday.
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Men’s semifinal: John Isner vs. Kevin Anderson
The men’s semifinal on the top half of the draw is one that will be overlooked. It’s the Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal semifinal that will be considered the so-called “final before the final.” But betting angles should never be overlooked, even in matches that are ‘lower on the card.’
Anderson has played too much tennis in the last two rounds to recover from ahead of the semifinals. You can’t really back him because of that.
In the round of 16, Anderson played 3 hours and 29 minutes against Gael Monfils. Then against Roger Federer in the quarters, Anderson played a marathon that lasted over 4 hours and went 13-11 in the 5th set. At 6’8″, he lumbers far too much to recover from efforts that must have been exhausting.
Isner lumbers heavier at 6’10” but the American was efficient in recent matches. The match against Milos Raonic in the quarters did involve a dropped set but Isner was off the court in 2 hours and 42 minutes. In the middle round, Isner needed only 2 hours and 6 minutes to beat his opponent. Isner’s lengthiest match at Wimbledon 2018 is from ages ago now and he has likely recovered from it following a third-round cake walk in 96 minutes.
Isner will be playing in his first semifinal but he’s fortunate to do it against a player that isn’t overly experienced in late rounds of Grand Slams. The match is considered a coin toss by moneyline odds but Isner looks like a heavy favorite in this one. Take Isner with betway at odds of $1.91 straight-up.
Recommendation: Isner’s moneyline at -109.89 with betway
Men’s semifinal: Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will meet for the 52nd time on tour in the Wimbledon 2018 semifinals. The Serb holds the edge heading into the match at 26-25. The parity between the two major talents is crystal clear; however, Djokovic is the better grass courter.
They’ve only actually met two times at Wimbledon in the past. The most recent time came back at Wimbledon 2011 when Djokovic defeated Nadal in the final.
While Nadal defeated Djokovic via retirement in the 2007 Wimbledon semifinals, the Serb has proven that he’s a better grass courter than Nadal. The 2011 final certainly counts for a lot on that topic but consider what both players have done since that result. Even in years where Nadal was fit enough to win the French Open he often struggled mightily at the All England Club. He is seven years removed from making this round of play at Wimbledon.
Djokovic, conversely, since winning the title in 2011 added two more. In each case, he beat greatest-grass-courter-ever Roger Federer in the final. At the times of those finals, it kind of looked like Federer was at least starting to look too old to complete the Grand Slams with victories. However, his three titles in recent years show that Djokovic just made Federer look that way when the Serb was at his best.
There’s nothing wrong with Djokovic’s form right now. Both of his dropped sets at Wimbledon 2018 came to quality players in Kei Nishikori and Kyle Edmund. Take the Serb to beat Nadal at $1.83 with betway sportsbook in the semifinals. Also, take Djokovic in Wimbledon Ante Post for the title at $2.40.
Recommendation: Djokovic’s moneyline of -120.48 with Betway
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