Sunday, February 5, 6.30pm at NRG Stadium, Houston.
Money line odds:
Patriots -3 (-120 at Bovada.lv)
Points total market:
Over 59.5 points -105
Under 59.5 points -115
THE old adage that defense wins championships can get thrown out the window for Super Bowl 51 as the two best offensive teams battle for NFL supremacy.
Tom Brady is seeking his fifth Super Bowl win (4-2) when he leads the New England Patriots to war with Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons – seeking the franchises’s first ever Super Bowl success.
The Patriots come into the game as the favorites after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers comfortably in the Conference Championship game and the bookmakers thought that win was good enough to open them as the -150 favorite.
The Falcons looked slick against the Green Bay Packers in what was billed as an offensive battle, but the Falcons defense turned up to the party and made life tough for Aaron Rodgers.
The Super Bowl 51 promises to be one of the most exciting editions in recent history, but will it be the Patriots or the Falcons leaving Houston with the trophy?
Super Bowl 51 statistics and betting predictions
It seems that everywhere we look we’re seeing a positive statistic for the Patriots, but the season stats would beg to differ.
The Falcons are the superior offensive team this season and its well-balanced receiving corp makes them tough to beat. Matt Ryan has transformed himself this season into an elite quarterback and slowing the Falcons down is going to be tough for the Patriots.
The Patriots also boast many offensive weapons, but they’re not as healthy as the Falcons. Injuries to key players would hurt most teams, but Tom Brady is so good that he could throw to anyone and still go for 300+ yards.
In the Patriots’ favor are a myriad of stats which could sway bettors that are on the fence. The Patriots will wear white in the Super Bowl and the last 11 of 12 Super Bowl champions have worn white. That statistic might be purely coincidental, but that’s a telling figure.
The most telling statistic is the record of Brady vs. Ryan/Falcons. Brady has started four games against the Falcons and has won all four, including two games against Matt Ryan.
Brady’s passer rating of 115.7 against the Falcons is not a good sign for bettors taking the +130 and the Patriots bring plenty of Super Bowl experience into this game. Tom Brady alone has more Super Bowl experience than the entire Falcons’ roster.
That does mean we think the Patriots will get the job done? Yes, it does. The Patriots are too professional to overlook in this matchup against the Falcons.
The Falcons bring plenty of talent and excitement to the league, but this season has largely been a surprise and the Patriots won’t be fazed by the occasion.
The moneyline odds of -150 are worth taking, but the -3 spread (-120 at 5dimes) looks safe as we expect the Patriots to win by 10 points.
Best Super Bowl 51 exotic bets
Exotic bets are a good way to make the game more interesting, and also a great way to find some extra value in the game.
Bettors can even get value before the game starts with the coin toss. Granted it’s only a 50/50 chance, but more and more bettors are getting involved with betting on the coin toss.
Our pick is Tails at -105 with Bovada.lv – for no real reason other than to make a flip of a coin an exciting prospect.
Another exotic wager which will be resulted quickly is the Team to score first in the game option. The Patriots are the -125 favorites, but so much depends on which team starts with the ball.
If the Falcons get the first possession, we can see them driving down the field to score at least a field goal, which pays -105 with bookmakers. The Falcons are fast starters and this looks a good betting option to start the game off well.
For added value, the Falcons to score a field goal first is +350 at Bovada.lv.
One option that took our eye was what the Patriots would do with their first possession. Score is currently -165, which is well below where we would price this option, and the punt is paying +135.
Those are some tasty odds and it only takes one bad play for the drive to result in a punt.
What will be the first enforced penalty in the game?
False start +260
Offside or encroachment +500
Pass interference +500
Delay of game +600
Personal foul or unsportsmanlike conduct +900
Any other penalty +600
No penalty in the game +3300
We like false start at +260 as we can see a nervous player jumping the gun. The nerves will be at full tilt on Sunday and it’s highly likely that one of the defensive linemen will try get a jump on the opposing quarterback.
First touchdown scorer:
Julio Jones +800
LaGarrette Blount +800
Devonta Freeman +800
Julian Edelman +1000
Tevin Coleman +1200
Martellus Bennett +1600
Chris Hogan +1600 at 5dimes
Taylor Gabriel +1600
Mohamed Sanu +1600
Malcolm Mitchell +2200
James White +2200
Atlanta D/ST +2500
New England D/ST +2500
Austin Hooper +3300
We think Patriots receiver Chris Hogan can continue his success story by scoring the first touchdown. The former lacrosse star is in the form of his life and Brady will be looking to link up with Hogan early in the game.