The men’s French Open final is set as Spain’s Rafael Nadal will face Austria’s Dominic Thiem.
The match could be billeted as a “changing of the guard” when it comes to clay-court prowess as Nadal is now 32 and Thiem is much younger at just 24. However, Nadal’s form on clay is no worse now than it was at many points in the past. As such, tennis punters can’t be expecting the Spaniard to fall in the 2018 French Open final, even against a player that will likely emerge as the top clay-court talent in the years ahead.
The money-line odds on the 2018 final from Roland Garros see Nadal at -454.55 with 5Dimes, odds that won’t make you rich. If you were looking for value, then you would take those odds instead of Thiem at +350 because Nadal is 11-0 in French Open finals. That is a record that is largely built against players that are more talented than Thiem (ie. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic). But tennis punters looking for a great betting line should be looking at the alternate markets in this match.
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French Open Final exotic tips
The match will likely see Nadal clobber Thiem in at least one set. Don’t be surprised at all if there is a score of 6-2 or better in Nadal’s favor in one of the sets.
In particular, the first set could be a big problem for Thiem. There are bound to be nerves for him early as he debuts in a major final. For that reason, it’s the first set that is most likely to be one-sided in Nadal’s favor.
A big first set would give Nadal a huge edge when it comes to game handicaps. It’s reasonable that Thiem might shake off early-match nerves and settle into competitive play in the second and third sets. But, that said, Nadal is still more than likely to be equal to Thiem even after the Austrian settles into the match.
Take Nadal to cover a -6.5 spread for games with 5Dimes in the 2018 men’s French Open final. Odds of -105.26 on that line don’t afford Nadal enough respect in this match.
In fact, if a -6.5 game spread was applied to Nadal’s matches at Roland Garros then he would have covered in the last five rounds of play. That range of matches includes his semifinal match against Juan Martin del Potro and it also includes the quarterfinal where Rafa actually lost a set to Diego Schwartzman.
Nadal’s demolition of the competition at the 2018 French Open simply can’t be ignored. Furthermore, you can’t go putting Thiem on a high pedestal just because he is in the final.
French Open Final betting recommendations
If you look carefully, Thiem actually blinked in the semis. The first two sets saw Marco Cecchinato, an inexperienced player, push Thiem to the limits. If Thiem blinks at all against Nadal then the Austrian won’t scrape by in the set: rather, he’ll find himself losing by a break or more. Thiem is in the final at a point in time where Federer is too old for the physical clay courts, where Stan Wawrinka may be past his best tennis, where Novak Djokovic isn’t quite up to par, and where Andy Murray is absent.
With a late-round draw through Grand Slam underachiever Alexander Zverev and ‘noob’ Cecchinato, Thiem can’t be taken seriously to dethrone Nadal. Better go with the Spaniard to cover the game-handicap to get some decent odds.
Recommendation: Nadal to cover -6.5 games with 5Dimes at odds of -105.26.
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