Betting Line: Patriots -1.5
Over/Under: 52 points at 888 Sportsbook
The Patriots and Steelers will go to war on Sunday afternoon in an NFL game that brings with it some big implications for the playoffs and the AFC East title.
The Patriots (9-4) are coming off a crazy loss where they gave up a 69-yard two lateral passing TD with only a few seconds left. Still, they have a two-game lead over Miami in the AFC East and can win the AFC East title with a win in this game.
Tom Brady has been getting it done, but the Pats may not be as intimidating as they have in a season’s past with a run game that has been up and a down and a defense that has had their issues.
The Steelers (7-5-1) have lost three in a row, but they still have a half game lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. They have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games facing the Pats and lost to them at home last season. James Connor ranks 5th in the league in rushing yards and he missed the last game and may not go in this one. Ben Roethlisberger has had a great season, but the team cannot run the ball he has had to do it all, which is not the blueprint for success.
These teams met last in mid-December of last season where the Patriots beat the Steelers 27-24.
This season the Patriots are 8-5 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 5-8 with the Steelers are at 6-6-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 7-6.
The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last eight games facing the Rams.
In their last game, the Patriots were on the road and lost to the Dolphins 34-33. They had nine ore overall yards in the game (421-412), but they only rushed for 77 yards while they gave up 189 rushing yards.
Brady did his part in the loss to the Dolphins passing for 358 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions and tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Josh Gordon combined for 203 receiving yards. Sony Michel did rush for 57 yards, but on 20 carries for a paltry average of 2.8 yards per carry. He has six touchdowns and only one interception in his last three games and will face a Pittsburgh pass defense that ranks 12th in the league, but gave up nearly 300 passing yards in their last game.
The Steelers were on the road in their last game facing the woeful Oakland Raiders and they lost 24-21 even being double-digit betting favorites. Big Ben had a solid passing game with 282 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, but the run game only helped out with 40 rushing yards. Yeah, they need Connor back in this game.
New England only ranks 23rd in the league in defending the pass and 15th defending the run. They held the Steelers to 24 points in winning in Pittsburgh last season and if they can duplicate that defensive effort they will get the win in this game with Brady leading the way and looking to wrap up the AFC East.
New England Patriots betting trends
- 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games facing a team with a winning record
- 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games
- 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games
- Under record of 5-1 in their last six games
Pittsburgh Steelers betting trends
- 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games
- 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- Over record of 4-0 in their last five games
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers betting prediction
Brady has had Big Ben’s number in the last few seasons and that will not change in this game facing a reeling Pittsburgh team.
The Pats will get it done moving the rock and they will win and cover the spread on the road, sending the Steelers to their fourth straight loss.
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