New York Giants vs. New York Jets. Sunday, December 11, 1pm. MetLife Stadium.
RIVALRIES don’t get much better than when the New York Giants play the New York Jets. It’s the game that divides the Big Apple and this Sunday could decide which team makes it through to the playoffs.
The Giants are in a tie for first place in the NFC East, but they lost the tie to the Redskins so they will need a better overall record to advance. The Jets sit second in their division behind the Patriots, so a wildcard spot is all they’re hoping for.
The winner will give themselves a much stronger chance of seeing football in late January and unfortunately for fans of New York football, it’s probably going to be one or the other.
Fans of the extraordinary might have to tune in also as Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. continues to make highlight reel plays. His catch against the Washington Redskins last Sunday was considered better than his catch that put him on the map and he doesn’t look like slowing down.
The bookmakers have given the slight edge to the Jets which do have the better winning record, but we’re expecting this game to be a tightly-contested affair.
Giants vs. Jets best betting options
Giants +133 (+1)
Jets -133 (-1) at Bovada
Bookmakers have only one point separating the two New York teams in the market and that should please punters on both sides of the coin.
Jets bettors will think they’re getting a good line as they are the team with momentum heading into this game, but Giants bettors will appreciate the tag of being the underdog.
As a favourite the Jets are 4-5-0 against the spread and the Giants are 3-1-1 as an underdog, so that statistic favours the Giants which are typically favoured to win the majority of their games.
Both teams have similar ATS record overall, with the Jets going 5-5-1 and the Giants sitting at 6-4-1. The line currently set by bookmakers isn’t big enough to use those stats as good betting guides.
Giants quarterback Eli Manning is looking to bounce back after a poor performance against the Redskins and he believes they’ll be tested this Sunday.
“This is the next game and an important one, not just because it’s Giants versus Jets and both teams share a stadium in the same city and everything,” Manning said. “But it’s important because of what it means for our playoff hunt.
“It’ll be a great test for us, they’re a good defense, their offense is playing well and scoring points, and we have to play well.”
Manning is correct about the Jets defense, but it’s the running game which will play a big part in deciding which team wins this game.The Jets average 114.3 points rushing on the back of some strong Chris Ivory runs, and the Giants give up an average of 110.5 rushing yards per game, compared to the 84.4 allowed by the Jets.
We’re expecting the Jets to be a run-heavy side this Sunday and force the Giants defensive line to stay on the field for long stretches of time. They will also be well aware of the effect Jason Pierre Paul has had since returning from a serious hand injury, and his pass rush is excellent. Dishing the ball to Ivory will negate his presence for most of the game.
The best betting option is in the head-to-head market as the +/- of 1 doesn’t make much of a difference. The Jets should be the more favoured team in the betting and we’re expecting their price to shorten as the week goes on.
Giants vs. Jets key statistics and game prediction
Some punters avoid looking at the statistics and go with their gut, which is completely fine, but to truly understand how a good will be played, statistics should be looked at as a guide to betting.
We like to look at recent performances, team stats and the injury report which makes a big difference at this time of the season.
New York Jets team stats and injury report:
Points per game: 24.7
Points allowed per game: 20.7
Total yards: 363.5
Yards passing: 249.2
Yards rushing: 114.3
Yards allowed: 340.8
Pass yards allowed: 256.5
Rush yards allowed: 84.4
We highlighted the Jets sturdy defense and their rushing stats. Opposing teams find it tough to beat sides that have both a good defense and a good rushing game.
Time spent with the ball is a key statistic and when you run the ball heavily, it takes time away from the opposition. If the Jets can run the ball at least twice every four downs, then their defense will be well rested.
They have only a fair passing game, but Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has a good competition record and he has thrown for 20 touchdowns this season.
The Jets have named tight end Kellen Davis, wide receiver Devin Smith and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson as “probable” for Sunday, and in bigger news Darrelle “The Island” Revis is still questionable to play – a major factor ahead of the game. Quality wide receiver Brandon Marshall is also questionable, but he should play.
New York Giants team stats and injury report:
Points per game: 26.1
Points allowed per game: 24.8
Total yards: 364.0
Yards passing: 274.6
Yards rushing: 89.4
Yards allowed: 425.5
Pass yards allowed: 315.1
Rush yards allowed: 110.5
The Giants only make a half-yard more than the Jets per game, but they are giving up a massive 315.1 passing yards per game and that could give Ryan Fitzpatrick the freedom to open up his playbook.
As previously mentioned, the Giants are giving up big chunks in the run game and that will be costly against this Jets outfit. Giants quarterback Eli Manning will need to play more efficient and not throw for multiple intercept games.
Both corner back Prince Amukamara and line backer Mark Herzlich are listed as probable for the game. Tight end Larry Donnell is a confirmed non-starter.
We think the Jets will come out run heavy and pound the ball as much as possible. That will frustrate the Giants defense which has looked suspect against the run all season long.