Rabbitohs: -6.5 ($1.91 at CrownBet.com.au)
WHEN the NRL schedulers thought of this Thursday night clash they probably expected at least one of the teams to be playing at a high level. Truth is, neither the Rabbitohs or the Tigers are playing anything closely resembling rugby league.
The South Sydney Rabbitohs are coming off a 30-8 smashing at the hands of the Brisbane Broncos and the Tigers were hapless against the Canberra Raiders, losing 60-6 in the biggest thrashing of the 2016 season.
The floodgates could well open up again for two teams which aren’t keen on playing defense. That will make the first tryscorer and anytime tryscorer market wide open and we have noted one player that could take advantage of this match-up.
Wests Tigers fullback James Tedesco is a great player playing for a bad team, but punters can now get the value offered up by bookmakers. The classy Tiger has already scored eight tries this season and his chances of scoring this Thursday night look good.
Rabbitohs vs. Tigers first tryscorer tips
James Tedesco has scored eight tries from eight games and unlike other fullbacks, he likes to start the game aggressively.
The 23-year-old plays well above his age and he leads the Tigers in multiple categories this season. Most tries, runs and line breaks with the latter making Tedesco a big try scoring threat against the Rabbitohs.
James Tedesco is the current equal favourite to score first at $8.50 with Sportsbet.com.au. He is on the same line as Rabbitohs’ winger Aaron Gray, but we think the odds are heavily in favour of Tedesco punters.
Aaron Gray has scored only five times this season and three of those came in one game. That means he has scored only two tries in the other seven games which doesn’t justify the $8.50 being offered. Punters have been burned with Gray over the past few weeks so it’s better to go with Tedesco.
Tedesco also has six try assists which makes his teammates threats to score also. David Nofoaluma has scored four tries from seven games winger Jordan Rankin has also scored four tries. The Tigers have no problem scoring tries and it has been only the consistency which has let it down.
We think the Tigers will open up the scoring this Thursday and James Tedesco is your best bet at $8.50.
Tigers first try-scorer market and team lineup:
1. James Tedesco – $8.50
2. David Nofoaluma – $15
3. Tim Simona – $20
4. Kevin Naiqama – $17
5. Jordan Rankin – $15
6. Mitchell Moses – $34
7. Luke Brooks – $26
8. Ava Seumanufagai – $61
9. Robbie Farah – $51
10. Tim Grant – $61
11. Curtis Sironen – $41
12. Chris Lawrence – $34
13. Sauaso Sue – $51
David Nofoaluma ($15) and Kevin Naiqama ($17) are good covering bets for Tedesco. Both could benefit from Tedesco’s good offloading ability and vision to put players through gaps.
For punters that don’t mind shorter odds, James Tedesco is paying a handy $1.67 to score at any time. We can’t see him playing for 80 without crossing the white line so add that into your NRL multi-bets at Sportsbet.com.au and get $50 cash back if your 5-leg multi misses by one leg.
Rabbitohs vs. Tigers game prediction
We think the Tigers will score first which pays out at $2.88 with Sportsbet.com.au. We also think that try scorer will be James Tedesco and given the Tigers’ team on paper looks good, we think a Tigers victory could be on the cards.
Only a few NRL teams boast such a lineup like the Tigers without posting regular success – New Zealand Warriors springs to mind, and the season turnaround could come against a Rabbitohs side which looks confused.
Our match prediction: Rabbitohs 16 – Tigers 32
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