Dragons vs. Broncos. Thursday, August 4 from 7.50pm at WIN Stadium
Points spread odds:
Dragons +12 ($1.91 at Sportsbet.com.au)
Broncos -12 at $1.91
TALK about two teams heading in the wrong direction. The Dragons and the Broncos are on the slippery slope down the NRL ladder and the silver lining is that one team will break the drought on Thursday night.
The Dragons has lost its last three since the bye week in round 18 and although it was handily beaten by the Titans and the Tigers, it did show some fight in losing by three points to the Bulldogs last week.
Broncos fans have been on edge since the middle of the season and its recent loss to the Roosters won’t have them feeling any better. The Broncos were in a challenging top-four position earlier this year, but a string of poor performances has them struggling. They lost 16-32 to the Roosters last week and 12-31 to the Panthers prior.
The Broncos are the heavy favourites to win on Thursday night due to the opposition it faces, but the game should be close and the Dragons will likely put up a fight.
Defense hasn’t been evident with these two teams lately and there should be plenty of tries scored on Thursday night. We have targeted the anytime try-scorer market as the best value at Sportsbet.com.au where punters will get cash back if your first try-scorer bet scores the second or third try.
Dragons vs. Broncos anytime try-scorer odds and tips
Jason Nightingale – $2.60
Kurt Mann – $2.60
Euan Aitken – $2.70
Taane Milne – $3.40
Adam Quinlan – $3.75
Gareth Widdop – $5.50
Tariq Sims – $5.50
Will Matthews – $6.50
Tyrone McCarthy – $8
Mitch Rein – $8
Benji Marshall – $8
Jake Marketo – $8
Jack de Belin – $8.50
Jacob Host – $9.50
Mike Cooper – $9.50
Russell Packer – $14
Kurt Mann is our go-to player for the Dragons. The young winger has scored in all eight games he has played this season and with seven line breaks on the season, he’s a dangerous player in all aspects.
Mann has scored double the amount of tries as his fellow winger and current equal-favourite Jason Nightingale, but Nightingale has played 19 games, so the value is clearly with Mann at $2.60 with Sportsbet.
Other try scoring options for the Dragons are Tariq Sims and Mitch Rein. Sims comes off the bench for Tyson Frizell and has played only five games this season without scoring a try. Don’t let that put you off as he has been well-supported at $5.50 and looks an outside chance at crossing the line.
Mitch Rein isn’t the most notable try scorer, having scored just once this season, but he can be dangerous around the dummy half area. Look for Rein to catch the Broncos defense off guard late in the game to score at big odds of $8.
Corey Oates – $1.53
Lachlan Maranta – $2
Anthony Milford – $2
James Roberts – $2.20
Darius Boyd – $2.70
Tom Opacic – $2.88
Matt Gillett – $3.75
Tevita Pangai Jnr – $4.33
Ben Hunt – $4.50
Sam Thaiday – $4.50
Alex Glenn – $4.50
Jai Arrow – $6.50
Andrew McCullough – $6.50
Corey Parker – $7.50
Josh McGuire – $8.50
Adam Blair – $8.50
Jarrod Wallace – $8.50
Corey Oates is a hot favourite at $1.53 to score at any time during the game, and rightfully so. The Broncos winger has scored 12 tries from 15 games and despite doing a lot of the hard yards up the middle, he has been able to retain his try-scoring form.
Oates is also $6.50 to score the first try of the game and with Sportsbet’s cash back promotion in mind, he looks a safe bet for punters this Thursday night.
The Broncos have many try-scoring threats. Anthony Milford ($2) has scored 11 tries this season and fullback Darius Boyd has chimed in with eight tries of his own. Boyd is currently a $2.70 chance to score which looks like good value.
We think big Josh McGuire could be worth a sneaky bet. Fresh after missing last week’s game, McGuire will be ready to go and he will be trying to avoid the nudie run at the end of the season. McGuire hasn’t scored this season, but is due and the $8.50 is worth a gamble.
Total try market tips
We think there will be plenty of tries scored in this game and punters can make some serious money betting these options.
The total tries line has been set at 6.5 which is high, but the price is currently $1.67 for the over which indicates that punters believe they’ll be seeing plenty of four-pointers on Thursday.
There is value to be had with the half with most tries market. The first half is currently $2.48 at Sportsbet and we think both teams will come out wanting to play expansive league. The second half is $2.08, but the value is with the first half for this option. Alternatively, punters could also take the first half points option (over 18.5) which is paying $2.02 – punters can find this at Sportsbet under “match markets”.
The alternative total tries market offers up some interesting choices for punters. For multi-bet punters this is a great option to boost potential payouts and we’re liking the look of under 7.5 tries scored. The game should be free-flowing, but we don’t believe there will be eight tries scored in total. This option is paying $1.55 and looks a solid multi-bet inclusion.
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