Thursday, June 9 from 8pm at Suncorp Stadium.
Points spread odds:
Broncos -10.5 ($1.91 at Crownbet.com.au)
Raiders +10.5 ($2 at Sportsbet.com.au)
LOOKING at the odds you would think the Broncos are high-flying through the tough State of Origin period, but it has been anything but happy times.
The Broncos will be looking to rebound having lost its last three games. Two of those losses came against average teams in the Tigers and the Warriors. The loss to the Cowboys in round 11 was to be expected, but without their origin stars, the Broncos simply didn’t cope.
On the other side of the coin, the Canberra Raiders dominated the origin period with three consecutive wins. They smashed the Warriors in Taranaki by 38-12 before beating a tough Bulldogs team a week later with a barrage of second half tries. They put away a Sea Eagles side by 12 points in round 13 and confidence is always key for the Raiders.
The bookmakers are giving the Raiders very little chance of scoring the upset win at Suncorp Stadium this Thursday night and given their record in Brisbane, we’d have to agree.
The Raiders have played nine games at Suncorp Stadium and have won only twice. That’s a concerning statistic even for a side which is bringing in more momentum. The news doesn’t get much better for the Raiders which have lost Jack Wighton and Shannon Boyd – with debutante Zac Santo filling in for Wighton at the fullback position.
The Broncos on the other hand welcome back Corey Oates and Matt Gillett from origin duty. They sorely missed both players last week with young halves Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford unable to spark any good offense.
We’re expecting plenty of points on Thursday with the origin stars making their mark.
Broncos vs. Raiders first tryscorer market
Brisbane Broncos team list and market:
1. Darius Boyd – $14
2. Corey Oates – $6
3. Jack Reed – $15
4. James Roberts – $11
5. Jordan Kahu – $9.50
6. Anthony Milford – $9.50
7. Ben Hunt – $20
8. Josh McGuire – $46
9. Travis Waddell – $34
10. Sam Thaiday – $34
11. Alex Glenn – $26
12. Matt Gillett – $20
13. Corey Parker – $41
The Broncos are stacked with try-scoring ability. Corey Oates has played nine games for nine tries and he will be eager to help out his struggling Broncos side. Oates has been cash money for try-scoring punters this season and is the current $6 favourite at Sportsbet.com.au.
Teammate Anthony Milford is the team’s leading try scorer with 10. The exciting five-eighth has played all 13 games and he typically looks to capitalise at the end of the game when the forwards are tired. We like Milford to score the final try of the game at $9.50.
Broncos winger Jordan Kahu has also been a profitable player so far this season. Kahu has crossed the line nine times and looks like good value to do it again. He is currently paying $1.83 at Sportsbet to score at any time throughout the game.
Canberra Raiders team lineup and odds:
1. Zac Santo – $20
2. Brenko Lee – $17
3. Jarrod Croker – $15
4. Joseph Leilua – $18 at Crownbet.com.au
5. Jordan Rapana – $13
6. Blake Austin – $20
7. Aidan Sezer – $34
8. Junior Paulo – $56
9. Josh Hodgson – $41
10. Paul Vaughan – $56
11. Josh Papalii – $26
12. Elliot Whitehead – $41
13. Luke Bateman – $71
Only Jordan Rapana has scored 10 or more tries for the Raiders this season. The winger has improved out of sight this season and he looks a good chance to score first at $13. The better value is with Rapana to score at any time. That pays $2.30 at Crownbet.com.au and looks the best bet for the Raiders.
Zac Santo could add some value on debut. Debutante’s have a good record of scoring in their first game and he’s currently $3.40 to score. Another top chance to score is the hard-hitting Joseph Leilua. He has been setting up tries all season long with 40 offloads which is easily the highest of the team.
His six try assists doesn’t give him the credit he deserves, but he’s on fire and remains the biggest threat for the Broncos to handle.
Broncos vs. Raiders game prediction
We think the Broncos will win this game, but by how much is the big question. The bookmakers have the line at 10.5, but we’re expecting that to push out closer to game time. The -10.5 for the Broncos has been very well backed and it might not last long.
The Raiders poor record at Suncorp and also the Broncos welcoming back two important origin players is key for us.
OUR TIP: Take the Broncos at the points start line with Sportsbet, but get in quick for the shortest line.
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