Friday, August 5 from 7.50pm at the MCG, Melbourne. Watch on 7, Fox Sports.
Richmond Tigers: 13th
Collingwood Magpies: 12th
Richmond Tigers: 7-11
Collingwood Magpies: 8-10
Last five match results:
Richmond Tigers: LLWLL
Collingwood Magpies: WWLLW
Richmond Tigers: $2.60 with CrownBet.com.au
Collingwood Magpies: $1.50 with CrownBet.com.au
Richmond Tigers: +12.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)
Collingwood Magpies: -12.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)
THE heat is well and truly on the Richmond Football Club.
With their season cooked, the Tigers went through the motions on the weekend and were absolutely destroyed by a Greater Western Sydney side keen to secure its top two credentials, 17.9 (111) to 3.5 (23).
And the pressure was almost at breaking point over the past two days as club legends labelled them “pathetic” and called for a full review of the football department.
Despite having two years to run on his contract after this season, coach Damien Hardwick’s job has been under the microscope, along with the 16 other players who will be out of contract at season’s end.
The Tigers produced their lowest score in 55 years as the Giants hammered them by 88 points at Spotless Stadium.
Dustin Martin continued his fine form, leading the way with 28 disposals, nine marks and six tackles, while Alex Rance played perhaps his best game of the season, in the face of a sea of orange bearing down on him in defence.
He had 26 touches and nine marks, reminding people why he is among the best defenders in the competition.
But the Tigers had far too many passengers. Full forward Jack Riewoldt was not one of them, booting two of the side’s three goals, but too many of his 17 disposals were collated up the ground, rather than in the forward line, where he is dangerous.
Martin has been a cut above almost everyone in the AFL not named Dangerfield this season and he is a skinny $1.33 to have 30 or more disposals.
But that is much better than ban interest and we reckon he could feast on the Magpies.
He had exactly 30 possessions the last time the two sides met and, given that the weekend was the first time he has gone under that mark in seven weeks, punters should be lining their pockets.
Riewoldt, as always, is the most obvious choice for first goal for the Tigers. He is their most consistent threat and the player who the opposition fears the most. He is $8.50 in the early markets to snag the first and should be considered heavily.
If you want a bit more value, Martin might be the pick.
He only has eight goals to his name on the season, but he did kick one against the Pies last time out, hence the reason for his $20 quote.
The Magpies ripped the West Coast Eagles to shreds on the weekend, managing a 19-point victory against a side that simply cannot win away from its home ground in Western Australia, 13.13 (91) to 11.6 (72).
Budding young superstar Darcy Moore showed why Pie fans hold him in such high esteem, booting three goals and snaring six marks, before going down with injury half way through the second term.
It was left to the Pies’ talented midfield of Taylor Adams (36 possessions) Scott Pendlebury (34) and Adam Treloar (28) to do the bulk of the prime moving work, while James Aish and Steele Sidebottom booted two each (the latter helping himself to 26 touches).
Taylor Adams has gone from dogged hard man to ball magnet in the past month, eclipsing better than 30 disposals in each of the past four games.
He is $1.40 to do so for a fifth week in a row and it is hard to see the Tigers stopping him from doing whatever he wants – they can’t stop any one.
On the goal kicking front, Travis Cloke was disappointing on the weekend and is every chance of getting dropped for Mason Cox, who made his return to the VFL on the weekend.
We like Aish to continue his good form. He is $14 with sportsbet.com.au to boot the first of the match.
Player props picks
Richmond Tigers first goal scorer picks:
Jack Riewoldt ($8.50 with sportsbet.com.au)
Dustin Martin ($20 with sportsbet.com.au)
Collingwood Magpies first goal scorer picks:
James Aish with ($14 with sportsbet.com.au)
Richmond Tigers disposals picks:
Dustin Martin to have 30 or more disposals ($1.33 with with sportsbet.com.au)
Collingwood Magpies disposals picks:
Taylor Adams to have 30 or more disposals with ($1.40 with sportsbet.com.au)
Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au
Match result: Collingwood to win ($2.60 with CrownBet.com.au)
Line betting: Richmond -12.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)
We wanted to pick Richmond to come out and put a shocking few weeks behind them and have a morale boosting win. But they simply have not looked like getting close over the past month, while the Pies have done enough to suggest they can move up the standings next season. This is not the easiest game to pick, as both teams are out of finals calculations, but we’re sticking with the Pies, who have the form to get the job done.
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