Thursday, March 10 from 8:05pm at Penrith Stadium, Penrith.
IT’S early in the 2016 NRL season, but already we have a real crunch game on our hands this Thursday when the Penrith Panthers take on the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs.
The Panthers ($2.40) will play their first home game after losing to the Raiders in Canberra, but bookmakers are prepared to risk them until they show some form.
The Bulldogs looked the much stronger side in Round 1 in their 28-6 win over Manly and we think they will continue on their winning way. The markets that interest us are the ones involving try-scoring machine Curtis Rona, who is the clear-cut favourite in first try-scorer markets.
The 23-year-old has scored 25 tries from 26 games which is an incredible strike rate and he has made try scorer bettors very happy. He was second on the top try scoring list last season and is expected to do big things again on the wing for the Dogs.
Panthers vs. Bulldogs first tryscorer market and tips
Canterbury Bulldogs top chances:
Curtis Rona – $6.50 at WilliamHill.com.au
Sam Perrett – $11
Josh Morris – $15
Kerrod Holland – $15
Will Hopoate – $17
Josh Reynolds – $21
Tony Williams – $21
Moses Mbye – $26
Penrith Panthers top chances:
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – $9.00
Josh Mansour – $10
Tyrone Peachey – $15
Waqa Blake – $15
Peta Hiku – $15
Will Smith – $17
Curtis Rona currently holds clear favouritism in the first tryscorer markets. The Bulldogs winger has scored in almost every match he has played and although he didn’t score first last week, he did managed to score the last try for the Bulldogs.
Bulldogs wingers have good records at scoring tries because their halves give them quality ball on the outside. Rona has Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds dishing out the good passes and he’s a good enough player to finish them off in the corner.
$6.50 is a low price for an exotic bet, but Rona looks a good chance at crossing the line first. Saver bets could be placed on Josh Morris ($15) and Panthers star Dallin Watene-Zelezniak who is well favoured at $9.00.
Punters can also bet on which Bulldog will score first which is where we get some better value for our man Curtis Rona. Despite being a quality side, the Bulldogs don’t rely on many players to score their points. They will willingly hit it up the middle and release the ball to their wingers and that’s why betting on Rona has been hugely profitable for punters.
WilliamHill.com.au offer a first tryscorer market for the Bulldogs which some Australian bookmakers don’t offer.
Curtis Rona – $3.50
Sam Perrett – $5.50
Josh Morris – $7.50
Kerrod Holland – $7.50
Will Hopoate – $8.50
Josh Reynolds – $10
Tony Williams – $10
Moses Mbye – $13
Craig Garvey – $13
Sam Kasiano – $13
Josh Jackson – $21
Greg Eastwood – $21
Adam Elliot – $21
James Graham – $26
David Klemmer – $26
Tim Browne – $29
Aiden Tolman – $29
Players under the odds include Tony Williams, Moses Mbye and Sam Kasiano. We don’t expect these three to be scoring in the game which has inflated the market nicely towards Curtis Rona. The $3.50 might look slim, but it’s good value and punters will snap it up quickly.
Panthers vs. Bulldogs try scoring exotics
WilliamHill have some excellent tryscorer exotic markets which will cater towards the multi-bet punters. Take any 4-leg multi-bet with WilliamHill and if you miss by one leg – you get your money back up to $50.
That means we can sort out some multi-bet inclusions with extra confidence and we have a Bulldogs exotic bet which should be added.
Jersey of first tryscorer:
Number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 – $1.55
Any other number/penalty try/tryless match – $2.35
They might be giving punters an early Christmas present with this option. Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 give us players Will Hopoate, Curtis Rona, Josh Morris, Kerrod Holland, Sam Perrett, Will Smith, Josh Mansour, Waqa Blake, Peta Hiku and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak.
If a forward scores a try, good for them, but we’ll take 10 of the best players on the park at $1.55 any day of the week. Add this to your multi-bet.
Punters can also bet on this same option, but for the last tryscorer of the game. WilliamHill are offering $1.70 for the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 which is still good money, but is less likely to cash due to players not seeing out the entire game.
Curtis Rona was the last tryscorer in Round 1 for the Bulldogs so it’s good to see the winger staying in for the entire game, despite the Bulldogs winning handsomely. This bodes well for this option and the $1.70 is a touch better value.
First try converted betting:
Yes – $1.25
No – $3.90
There is some value betting no in this option. Moses Mbye kicked only three of five conversions last week against the Sea Eagles and that’s because they score the large majority of their tries on the wings. Kicking from the sideline isn’t easy and the $3.90 looks worth a stab.
The trouble is if Jamie Soward gets the first kick for Penrith. He went at 100 percent in Round 1 and he looks in good kicking form this season. The value still lies with the $3.90 for No.
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