Friday, July 1 from 7.50pm at Suncorp Stadium
Points start odds:
Broncos: -2.5 ($1.90)
Storm: +2.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet.com.au)
It’s safe to say the Broncos didn’t survive the State of Origin period. It has lost three of its last four games, with its only win coming against the Raiders in round 14.
The heavy loss last week against the Bulldogs (14-40) signified just how bad the Broncos are playing and it won’t get any easier against the high-flying Storm this Friday night.
Since its bye week in round 12, the Storm has won three of its last four, dropping only one game to the Dragons with the likes of Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith away on origin duty. Sitting in second position on the table, the Storm is exceeding expectations and now finds itself as one of the premiership favourites.
The bookmakers are in favour of Brisbane which is expected to regain the form it showed earlier in the season, but the Storm has an incredible record at Suncorp Stadium and punters should take serious notice of the $2.25 on offer.
The Storm has played 14 games at Suncorp for 11 wins and three losses. That’s one of the best win-rates in the NRL, home or away, and in a rare Friday night game for the Storm, it will test the home side.
Broncos vs. Storm first try-scorer market and tips
Betting on the first tryscorer market is one of the most popular bet types for NRL punters. The opening try is typically scored within the first 15 minutes and the quicker the turn-around, the better it is for punters.
The odds offered are also generous and this Friday night there are some good first try-scoring bets available.
1. Darius Boyd – $14
2. Corey Oates – $7.50
3. Kodi Nikorima – $20
4. James Roberts – $14
5. Lachlan Maranta – $11
6. Anthony Milford – $11
7. Ben Hunt – $23
8. Josh McGuire – $56
9. Andrew McCullough – not yet quoted
10. Adam Blair – $56
11. Alex Glenn – $26
12. Matt Gillett – $20
13. Corey Parker – $46
Corey Oates has been money for try-scoring bettors so far this season. The Broncos winger has scored 10 tries in 11 games and that’s why he is the short favourite at $7.50.
Anthony Milford has scored more tries with 11, but that came from 15 games. Milford still remains a top first try-scoring option at $11, but prying metres around the middle of the park won’t be likely against the Storm. Milford is best when he’s up against tired defense, so consider him as a last try-scoring option at $11 with Sportsbet.
Ben Hunt isn’t exactly a try-scoring freak, but we think he could show up against the Storm. Hunt has scored four times this season with 17 try assists, but the Broncos need more direct play from its halves and coach Wayne Bennett should be telling Hunt to attack the line more.
Take Ben Hunt to score first at $23 with Sportsbet for a touch of value.
1. Young Tonumaipea – not yet quoted
2. Suliasi Vanivalu – $9.50
3. Cheyse Blair – $18
4. Ryan Morgan – $18
5. Marika Koroibete – $10
6. Tohu Harris – $26
7. Cooper Cronk – $20
8. Jesse Bromwich – $41
9. Cameron Smith – $51
10. Jordan McLean – $61
11. Kevin Proctor – $26
12. Ken Bromwich – not yet quoted
13. Dale Finucane – $46
Suliasi Vanivalu has been a try-scoring sensation for the Storm this season. The winger has played in nine games and scored 13 tries. That’s likely because he’s had a team-leading 12 line breaks which makes him hard to defend.
He might make a lot of errors (10 this season), but he should be considered to score first at $9.50. Also on the list is Marika Koroibete who looks a good chance to score at any time during Friday’s game. Koroibete has scored seven tries this season and is currently paying $1.91 to score at Sportsbet.com.au.
State of Origin star and round 16 game-winner Cooper Cronk has a better try-scoring record than most would expect. The champion halfback loves to control the game, but he’s also handy at crossing the line. Cronk has scored nine tries from 14 games which includes five line breaks and nine try assists.
Back Cronk at $20 with Sportsbet to score the first try on a pitch which he has had plenty of success at.
Broncos vs. Storm game special and prediction
WilliamHill.com.au is offering a specials market which includes both Ben Hunt and Cooper Cronk, our two try-scoring chances.
Hunt vs. Cronk – most tries:
Hunt – $4.50
Cronk – $5
Tie – $1.44
We think both are good chances at scoring throughout the game, but Cooper Cronk provides a much beter threat. The Storm halfback is one of the best attacking halves in the NRL and he’s never afraid to take on the line.
We suggest taking Cronk ($5 at WilliamHill) and also the Melbourne Storm to win the game. The Storm have been playing great league of late and its record at Suncorp Stadium shouldn’t be ignored.
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