Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee
Watch: Fox Sports 1 (Main Card) & Fox Sports 2 / UFC Fight Pass (Prelims)
Let’s briefly recap UFC 190 from this past Saturday. Soa Palelei was the biggest letdown, but I have to give credit to Antonio Silva, who looked great. Struve hit on the money line, but didn’t win ITD, so that was basically a wash.
Cavalcante couldn’t get it done as an underdog, but thankfully Rousey saved the night. She won by KO, which we got at a good price (+250). Both of the Nogueira brothers lost on the main card and neither looked good.
This weekend we have a free event on Fox Sports 1.
UFC Fight Night 73 will have some finishes and we’re in for a great night of fights.
Let’s kick-off our UFC Fight Night 73 betting coverage with a complete preview of the main event.
St. Preux vs. Teixeira betting odds and predictions
- Round Total: Over 1.5 Rounds -145 (5Dimes) vs. Under 1.5 Rounds +125 (5Dimes)
- Win By TKO/KO: Ovince St. Preux +170 (5Dimes) vs. Glover Teixeira +205 (5Dimes)
- Win By Submission: Ovince St. Preux +1325 (5Dimes) vs. Glover Teixeira +415 (5Dimes)
5Dimes always has the most betting markets for the UFC if you live in the USA. They also have the best odds in most cases. If you want to bet on anything other than the money line in a UFC fight – you need a 5Dimes betting account.
Let’s take a look at how these two light heavyweights stack up against each other.
Ovince St. Preux (18-6):
Average Fight Time: 8:16
Stoppage Victories: 14 (9 TKO/KO & 5 Submissions)
Stoppage Losses: 1 (1 TKO/KO)
Glover Teixeira (22-4):
Average Fight Time: 6:38
Stoppage Victories: 19 (13 TKO/KO & 6 Submissions)
Stoppage Losses: 1 (1 TKO/KO)
St. Preux has a chance to crack the top 5 on the LHW rankings with a win. OSP is 6th right now, while Teixeira is 4th on the rankings. This is a big fight for both veterans, as neither has too much time to make a run at a title shot.
At this point, Teixeira would be happy with a win. The Brazilian has lost two in a row by decision – the first came against Jon Jones at UFC 172 and the second came against Phil Davis at UFC 179.
OSP has walked out and won two in a row by TKO/KO against Mauricio Rua and Patrick Cummins.
Both fighters are prone to finishing, but choosing the method of victory market in this fight may not be the best bet. The Brazilian has lost two in a row, but both were by decision against two of the toughest guys in the division.
If you believe OSP will win, it’s far safer betting him on the money line at even money. OSP has only been finished once in six career losses too, and the TKO loss came back in 2009 at TCC 1, so Teixeira will have a hard time finishing as well.
However, this fight is scheduled for five rounds and I have a hard time seeing these two last 25 minutes.
Both big men actively attempt takedowns – Teixeira averages 2.32 TD’s per 15 minutes (50%) and St. Preux averages 1.70 TD’s per 15 minutes (60%). OSP has slightly better TD defense (66% vs. 60%).
Teixeira is the more active striker at 4.15 SLpM (41% Accuracy), but OSP is more accurate at 50% (2.63 SLpM). You also have to consider the fact OSP will have a 4” reach advantage and his southpaw stance will cause problems.
- Best Bets: Ovince St. Preux +100 & Over 1.5 Rounds -145 at 5Dimes.eu
Dariush vs. Johnson picks and latest odds
The co-main event at UFC Fight Night 73 is between Michael Johnson (16-8) and Beneil Dariush (11-1).
Johnson is priced at -150 at 5Dimes and Dariush can be had at +144 at Bookmaker. If the odds move anymore at either shop we’ll almost have an arbitrage on our hands. Both fighters come into this bout on 4-fight win streaks.
Dariush has beaten Martin, Ferreira, Cruickshank and Miller, while Johnson has beaten Lauzon, Tibau, Guillard and Barboza. Johnson is ranked 5th in the lightweight division and Dariush is ranked 12th in the division.
Here’s why I like Dariush, especially as a nicely priced underdog.
Six of Johnson’s eight losses have come by submission. Dariush has six submission wins, including three in the UFC and he’ll get plenty of chances to lock in a submission in this one, as Johnson will look to utilize his wrestling.
Dariush will have to finish to win, but there’s a good chance he can tap out Johnson.
- Best Bet: Beneil Dariush +144 at Bovada
UFC Fight Night 73 parlay picks
My best parlay for UFC Fight Night 73 is Brunson, Rosholt, Borg and Ortiz.
The 4-fighter parlay is full of big favorites that’ll win this weekend and the parlay pays +172 at 5Dimes.
Derek Brunson (13-3) fights Sam Alvey (26-6). Alvey has displayed a lot of power lately – winning three in a row by TKO/KO. He has 17 TKO/KO wins and you have to respect his power, but Brunson has excellent wrestling.
He’ll be able to take this fight down to the mat and keep Alvey pinned for three rounds.
Jared Rosholt (12-2) has a lot to prove in this fight against Timothy Johnson (9-1).
Johnson won his debut against Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO, but this is a step up. Rosholt has experience, but he has been KO’ed twice in his career. He can’t afford another TKO/KO loss and I expect Rosholt to look good in this fight.
I’m also on two prelim fights. Ray Borg (8-1) fights Geane Herrera (8-0). Herrera is making his debut and should be in over his head against Borg, who has consistently been getting better since joining the UFC.
Lastly – I’m on Dustin Ortiz (14-4) against Willie Gates (12-5). Ortiz just lost a tough decision to Benavidez and he has been out of the cage for nearly a year. I’m sure he’s anxious to get back in the cage and move up the division.
- Parlay Picks: Brunson + Rosholt + Borg + Ortiz (+172) at 5Dimes.eu