Brisbane Broncos vs. Wests Tigers. Friday, May 27. 8:00pm. Suncorp Stadium.
Broncos – 3rd
Tigers – 13th
Broncos – 8-3
Tigers – 4-7
Broncos – $1.20
Tigers – $4.00
Points spread market:
Broncos -12 ($1.91 at Crownbet.com.au)
Tigers +12 ($1.91 at Crownbet.com.au)
THE Queensland and New South Wales State of Origin sides have been named and they both directly influence this game.
Players missing either through Origin or injury for the Tigers are Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah and James Tedesco. Those three players are the heart of the Tigers side and those losses are reflected in the head-to-head odds being offered.
The Broncos, as usual, have been hit hard by Origin. Corey Oates, Corey Parker, Darius Boyd, Josh McGuire, Matt Gillett and Sam Thaiday will all be missing, but some early season mishaps from the Broncos could see their position on the ladder stay safe throughout the tricky Origin period.
Both Anthony Milford and Ben Hunt were denied Origin selection due to missing their curfew before the season started, and although the Queensland Maroons are without two star players, the Broncos get a stellar halves combination.
The Broncos still have talent despite its losses, with the likes of Jordan Kahu, James Roberts and big Adam Blair still in the side.
This week we’re excited about what we’ll see from Anthony Milford against a Tigers defense which looks better suited to the second grade. The Broncos five-eighth will carve through both Mitchell Moses and Luke Brooks – two of the worse defensive halves in the NRL, and Milford could have some try-scoring fun this Friday night.
Anthony Milford tryscoring markets and tips
We are a little perplexed at the market Sportsbet has releases for the first tryscorer. The Broncos have the top five favourites which is to be expected, but current $8.50 favourite is Greg Eden who has yet to score in three games this season.
Lachlan Maranta returns to the wing position having played only one game this season and the bookmakers think he’s a chance at scoring first, too. The young winger is the equal $8.50 favourite which shows Sportsbet is clearly favouring the Broncos’ wingers.
The clear first tryscorer value is with three other players which includes Anthony Milford who has scored 10 tries from 11 games this season. The star five-eighth has been slicing through defenses and leads the team with 140 runs for the season.
He has also had eight line breaks which makes him a danger in the middle of the field. He is better suited when the defense is tired, but we wouldn’t put him scoring first out of the equation. His odds of $9.50 to score first look like good value and don’t be afraid to double up on Milford scoring the last try of the game at $9.50 with Sportsbet.
The other two Broncos players at good value are James Roberts ($9.50) and Jordan Kahu ($15). Kahu represents the best value having scored eight tries from 11 games and although he is forced to switch to fullback, he will be wanting to get involved in the play as early as possible.
We expect James Roberts to have a big game against the Tigers. The speedy centre has scored only three tries this season and much more has been expected from him, but he could easily have a breakout game this Friday.
Roberts is $9.50 to score first and is $1.83 at Crownbet to score at any time. We think the value is with the ‘to score two or more tries’ option which pays out at $5.50 for Roberts. This game should be high scoring and the Broncos could have a field day with Milford and Hunt controlling the action.
Broncos vs. Tigers game prediction and best bets
Like the bookmakers, we don’t expect this game to be close. The current line of 12 appears to be a big line, but the Broncos have the ability to cover that within the first half.
The Tigers can surprise a few teams on their day, but the “baby Broncos” tag has well and truly been squashed over the last few years and with the Hunt/Milford combination still in tact, their poor behaviour at the start of the season has been a blessing for the Broncos.
We expect the Broncos to be try-hungry this Friday night. Coach Wayne Bennett might consider going for the try instead of the two-point penalty goal this time around and considering they were only narrowly run down by the North Queensland Cowboys last week, the Tigers shouldn’t stand a chance.
The likes of Milford, Roberts and Kahu should all capitalise from the poor Tigers defense and cross the white line at some stage on route to a good ole’ Friday night thrashing.
Match prediction: Broncos 32 – Tigers 10
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