Dates: Thursday, July 9th – Friday, July 10th 2015
THERE have been several surprises at Wimbledon and I’m sure there are some fireworks left.
Serena Williams (1), Maria Sharapova (4), Agnieszka Radwanska (13) and Garbine Muguruza (20) have all booked a spot in the semifinals on the women’s draw. The WTA Wimbledon semifinals will be played on Thursday afternoon local time.
For those of you across the pond in the USA and Canada – the matches will be on early in the morning.
Williams vs. Sharapova betting tips and odds
Thursday, July 9th 2015 at 3:00pm (Wimbledon) – 10:00am ET
- Match Odds: Williams (-518) vs. Sharapova (+412) @ 5Dimes.eu
- Total Games: Over 21.5 (-110) vs. Under 21.5 (-120)
- Games Won: Williams -4.5 (-110) vs. Sharapova +4.5 (-120)
Serena Williams has dominated Maria Sharapova throughout the years. Williams holds a 17-2 H2H lead and she has won the last sixteen match-ups. Sharapova hasn’t been able to beat Williams for more than a decade (WTA Championships in 2004).
Most of the recent match-ups haven’t been too close either. Since 2011 – these two have played eleven times and only one of those meetings required three sets. However, the last match at Wimbledon was closely contested between these two stars.
Williams has had the tougher path to the semifinals – she has had to beat Gasparyan, Babos, Watson, Williams and Azarenka. Both her sister and Azarenka are ranked in the top 30. Sharapova hasn’t had to beat anyone inside of the top 30.
Sharapova has wins against Konta, Hogenkamp, Begu, Diyas and Vandeweghe.
Williams has needed three sets against Watson and Azarenka. My best bet is on over 21 games (-118) at 5Dimes. I’m paying a bit of extra juice to drop the total games line to 21. Two of the last three H2H matches have gone over 21 games.
Here’s an interesting Williams vs. Sharapova prop bet I like for the SF too. There has been a tiebreaker in two of the last three H2H matches. Bovada.lv has a prop where you can bet on a tiebreaker in the match at +300 odds.
- Best Bet: Over 21 Games (-118) at 5Dimes.eu
Muguruza vs. Radwanska betting tips and odds
Thursday, July 9th 2015 at 1:00pm (Wimbledon) – 8:00am ET
- Match Odds: Muguruza (-125) vs. Radwanska (+105)
- Total Games: Over 22.5 (-105) vs. Under 22.5 (-125)
- Games Won: Muguruza -1.5 (-105) vs. Radwanska +1.5 (-125)
Garbine Muguruza has been busy at Wimbledon. She has not only advanced to the semifinals against Agnieszka Radwanska, but she has played a couple doubles matches as well. Muguruza has been in great form and a deserving favorite in the betting market.
Muguruza has beaten Lepchenko, Lucic-Baroni, Kerber, Wozniacki and Bacsinszky. Her last three opponents are all ranked in the top 15 and she has looked dominant. Radwanska has eliminated Hradecka, Tomljanovic, Dellacqua, Jankovic and Keys.
Radwanska has had an easy path and I believe her time at Wimbledon is about to come to an end.
I wish the bookmakers would have given us a better betting line in the match odds market, but I’ll still jump on Muguruza at -125 to win the match. Muguruza is 2-0 against Radwanska this year – winning in Sydney and Dubai on hard courts.
The overall head-to-head record is 2-2 between these two women, but Muguruza has clearly improved.
Muguruza to win 2-0 in the set betting market at Bovada at +190 interests me as well.
- Best Bet: Muguruza (-125) at 5Dimes.eu
The marathon match between Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet has just ended and Gasquet won. The four players that have qualified for the Wimbledon SF’s on the ATP Tour include Novak Djokovic (1), Roger Federer (2), Andy Murray (3) and Gasquet (20).
Murray vs. Federer betting tips and odds
Friday, July 10th 2015 at 1:00pm (Wimbledon) – 8:00am ET
- Match Odds: Murray (-127) vs. Federer (+107)
- Total Games: Over 43 (-120) vs. Under 43 (-110)
- Games Won: Murray -1.5 (-105) vs. Federer +1.5 (-125)
Andy Murray and Roger Federer have a long history, but they’ve only met once at Wimbledon. Federer bested Murray in the finals at Wimbledon 2012 and you can bet Murray will want to get revenge on home soil this time around.
The overall H2H record is close (Federer 12 vs. Murray 11), but Federer is 3-0 against Murray dating back to last year.
Murray has had an easy path thus far – his toughest opponent has been Karlovic (Ranking: 25). He also has wins against Kukushkin, Haase, Seppi and Pospisil. Federer has wins against Dzumhur, Querrey, Groth, Bautista Agut and Simon at Wimbledon.
This is a tough match, but I can’t pass up Federer at plus money. He has had more success on the grass, he has looked better in the tournament up to this point and he’s fresh. The Swiss player has only been on the court for three hours the past two matches.
Murray hasn’t had a great serve either at Wimbledon – he only has 12 aces in his last two matches.
If Federer can limit the unforced errors – he’ll beat Murray — but it won’t be easy. My prediction is Federer in four sets.
- Best Bet: Federer (+107) at Bovada.lv
Djokovic vs. Gasquet betting tips and odds
Friday, July 10th 2015 at 3:00pm (Wimbledon) – 10:00am ET
- Match Odds: Djokovic (-1390) vs. Gasquet (+915)
- Total Games: Over 33.5 (+100) vs. Under 33.5 (-128)
- Games Won: Djokovic -5.5 (-150) vs. Gasquet +5.5 (+110)
Richard Gasquet had to dig deep to eliminate Wawrinka in five sets today – the fifth set ended 11-9. Gasquet looked pumped up to make it to the SF at Wimbledon, but you could tell that he was running out of steam near the end of the Wawrinka match.
Djokovic is now going to have Gasquet running all over the court and there’s no way Gasquet will steal another win.
If we look at the H2H record – Djokovic is 12-1 and he has won nine matches in a row. However, this will be the first time that the two meet on grass. Gasquet has been on an incredible run with wins over Saville, De Schepper, Dimitrov, Kyrgios and Wawrinka.
That’s a tough run to the semifinals, which included some match-ups against big servers.
Djokovic has been dominant except for his match against Kevin Anderson, which required a fifth set. Djokovic also has wins over Kohlschreiber, Nieminen, Tomic and Cilic. Djokovic just beat Cilic in straight sets – the close call against Anderson woke him up.
I’m waiting on a line for Djokovic to win 3-0, but once out, that’ll be my best bet.
Bovada has been releasing props on every Wimbledon match – head over to Bovada.lv and get a $250 cash bonus.