Serena Williams, Angelique Kerber, Jelena Ostapenko, and Julia Goerges remain alive in the Wimbledon 2018 women’s draw for singles.
In a draw that was filled with losses to high seeds, that’s still a strong quartet of players.
In fact, three of the four have previously won Grand Slam titles for singles with Goerges the odd-woman-out from that perspective. Let’s take a look at each of the two semifinals to be played, only one of which looks like it will be evenly matched.
Note: Order of play not released at the time of writing. But according to Wimbledon’s event schedule, the showcourts won’t commence until at least 1 PM London time.
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Women’s singles: Angelique Kerber vs. Jelena Ostapenko
Jelena Ostapenko, the 2016 French Open champion, is likely under-rated against Angelique Kerber. If you take a look at what the Latvian has done at Wimbledon, there’s nothing that would stop you from backing her against Kerber at underdog odds.
Ostapenko is through to the semifinals after five match-wins at Wimbledon 2018, all of which were won in straight sets. Twice she has been extended to a tiebreaker but more commonly she has been dominant. In 30% of her sets, she has won to love or to 1-game against. It’s true that she hasn’t played a seed yet but Dominika Cibulkova was a significant non-seed in the Wimbledon 2018 draw. Ostapenko beat her in straight sets with no need for a tiebreaker.
Additionally, Ostapenko should be very fresh for the women’s semifinal. Her longest match of the tournament came way back in round one and it lasted just 93 minutes.
Kerber is sizzling at Wimbledon too. However, her form is slightly below Ostapenko’s with one dropped set in the tournament. That certainly doesn’t mean a lot but in a match that appears to be between evenly-matched opponents, slight edges count.
Kerber is also 30 years old while Ostapenko is just 21. While both players are capable of winning seven matches in a tournament, an energy-level edge might rest with Ostapenko here. Kerber has also played two matches that were both longer than the 93-minute match that Ostapenko won. In Kerber and Ostapenko goes a lengthy three sets, don’t be surprised if the latter has just a little extra pep.
The Latvian should be considered a small favourite in this match. Accordingly, odds longer than EVEN are worth taking and they are available. Take Ostapenko in this one at +140 with betway sportsbook.
Betting recommendation: Ostapenko’s moneyline of +140 with Betway
Women’s singles: Serena Williams vs. Julia Goerges
Serena Williams is very unlikely to lose her semifinal against Julia Goerges. The German player is into her first Grand Slam semifinal, having flopped in so many majors previously. In a quarter of the draw where Karolina Pliskova choked, Venus Williams showed her age, and Sloane Stephens busted in the first round, Goerges is the last woman standing. She is very much a player that is left over as opposed to a contender.
If you take out her current semifinal appearance, Goerges’ record at Wimbledon is shockingly bad for a player that made the top ten. She has gone out in the first round seven times. Other times she failed to make the fourth round.
Williams’ credentials require no review. The only thing you have to be worried about is the fact that she is 36 years old and in a late-round match. However, a 3-0 record against Goerges with some one-sided sets in their head-to-head series still makes Serena the clear pick.
You could mention the name “Roberta Vinci” right now to spook yourself out from backing Serena heavily. Vinci shocked Serena in the semis of the 2015 US Open. While mulling that over, don’t forget that Vinci came in priced as a huge underdog and Goerges is only coming in a small ‘dog. There’s no big incentive to take the German.
Odds as short as -333.33 on Serena have rarely looked so good. To make them interesting, enter them into parlays.
Recommendation: Williams’ moneyline with Betway at -333.33 with Betway
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