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NCAA Final Four ATS betting – Texas Tech vs. Michigan State tips

Texas v Michigan

Texas v Michigan

Betting Line: Michigan State -2.5
Over/Under: 132.5 at Bovada

Michigan State (32-6) is the only powerhouse college hoops program left in the Final Four, but they face a great Texas Tech (30-6) team that has had a great run in the Big Dance thus far.

Texas Tech was the third seed out of the West Region, but still a huge shock to come this far, given who they have beaten along the way. They took out the top two seeds in Gonzaga and Michigan and their defense has been the key. They have the nation’s third ranked defense in terms of points allowed and in their last game they held the highest scoring team in the nation in Gonzaga to 69 points.

Michigan State took down the all-powerful Duke Blue Devils in their last game and the Spartans are rolling, They have been solid on both ends of the floor and their pressure defense was huge in the win over Duke. Tom Izzo and the Spartans are no stranger to the Final Four and they face-off with a Tech team that is making their first ever appearance.

This season Texas Tech is 19-16-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 15-20 and Michigan State is at 27-11 ATS with an Over/Under record of 15-22-1.

This will be the first ever meeting between these teams.

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Texas Tech showed grit in their last game outscoring Gonzaga by eight points in the second half in the 75-69 win. The Red Raiders did not shoot the rock much better (43.9% to 42.4%), but they shot the 3-poiner better and did force 16 turnovers even though they committed 13.

Jarrett Culver led the way for Tech with 19 points, but was only 5/19 from the floor. He leads the team on the season putting up an average of 18.9 ppg and he is averaging 22.4 ppg in the tourney, but has been up and down with his shooting. Matt Mooney had 17 points shooting 50% from the floor in the Gonzaga win and the team’s 2nd leading scorer in Davide Moretti had 12 points and they have both played pretty well in the tournament.

Michigan State beat Duke 68-67 in their last game, which jettisoned the tourney favorite. They shot a lower FG% (42.9% to 45.6%), but a major key was that they forced 17 turnovers and only committed seven.

Both of these teams can really bring the pressure and while Texas Tech has the better defensive team Michigan State forced 17 turnovers in their huge win over Duke. The Red Raiders had 13 turnovers in their last game and that has to be a concern. Cassius Winston had 20 points and Xavier Tillman had 19 points and nine rebounds.

Winston (18.9 ppg) leads MSU in scoring and his scoring has been decent, but he has not shot the ball well. 3rd leading scorer Nick Ward (13.2 ppg) has failed to crack double figures in any Big Dance game, but Tillman has stepped up his game. On the season, he is averaging 10.1 ppg and 7.3 rpg and in the five tourney games is averaging 15.3 ppg and 8.5 rpg.

Texas Tech Red Raiders betting trends

  • 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall
  • 5-0 ATS in their last five games facing teams from the Big 10
  • Under record of 19-9 in their last 28 neutral site games

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Michigan State Spartans betting trends

  • 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games
  • 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games overall
  • Under record of 5-1 in their last six games

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Michigan State Spartans betting predictions

So many giants have fallen in the tournament so far — will Michigan State be next?

Texas Tech has been legit on their run to the Final Four and they will shock the Spartans in this one.

I see a close game, but for Tech to not only cover the spread, but get the win as well.

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