Venue: All England Club in Wimbledon, London
Watch: ESPN, TSN & BBC
WIMBLEDON starts on Monday and our team at BettingPlanet.com want to share our futures predictions.
Not only that – I’m going to let you know who’s in and who’s out, plus who’s hot.
Wimbledon is always a great time of the year for tennis fans – the weather is nice, the grass courts are exciting and there’s no better venue than the All England Club.
The draw isn’t out until tomorrow, but the top seeds have been confirmed already and you can check them out at Bovada.lv.
Serena Williams is the #1 seed in the women’s draw, while Novak Djokovic is the #1 seed in the men’s draw.
Both players are having great seasons. Djokovic is 41-3 with five titles, including a win at the Australian Open. Williams is having a career year – she has a 32-1 record in singles play, including wins in both majors (Australian Open & French Open).
For the first time in her career – Williams win the “Calendar Slam” if she wins Wimbledon and the US Open.
Novak Djokovic favored to win ATP Wimbledon title
Let’s get the injury news out of the way first.
Juan Martin Del Potro had to pull out of Wimbledon after having wrist surgery, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Kei Nishikori are both doubtful at the moment. Nishikori expects to be ready, but Tsonga is unlikely to be fit to play this year.
On the men’s draw – it’s important to focus on the top seeds at Wimbledon.
Let me explain with some numbers – the top three seeds in the tournament have won the title the last ten years and the runner-up has been a top four seed in eight of the last ten years. Betting on outsiders to win Wimbledon is equivalent to throwing money away.
The only players outside of the top four seeds to make the finals at Wimbledon in the last ten years have been Andy Roddick (Seed 6) and Tomas Berdych (Seed 12).
Men’s outright winner odds for the top ten seeds.
- Seed 1: Novak Djokovic 5/4
- Seed 2: Roger Federer 6/1
- Seed 3: Andy Murray 11/4
- Seed 4: Stan Wawrinka 14/1
- Seed 5: Kei Nishikori 25/1
- Seed 6: Tomas Berdych 28/1
- Seed 7: Milos Raonic 25/1
- Seed 8: David Ferrer 125/1
- Seed 9: Marin Cilic 33/1
- Seed 10: Rafael Nadal 10/1
Yes, you read that right, Nadal is the 10th seed after having lacklustre results in 2015 up to this point.
Nadal is 29-10 and he has only won the Argentina Open and Mercedes Cup. The Mercedes Cup was played on grass this year, so it was good to see Nadal gain some confidence on the grass, but he followed that up with a R1 loss in the AEGON Championships.
The Spaniard has won two Wimbledon titles (2008 & 2010), but he isn’t going to be a major threat in 2015. The last time Nadal made it to the finals was back in 2011 – he has never been known as a great grass court player though.
I believe the men’s draw will come down to Djokovic, Federer and Murray.
Murray is 36-6 on the year – he finished 2nd in the Australian Open and lost in the SF at the French Open. Murray just won the AEGON Championships, although he didn’t have to beat any real tough competition throughout the tournament.
Federer has struggled in the first two majors this year – he lost in the 3rd round at the Australian Open and the QF at the French Open. However, he just won the Gerry Weber Open in Halle and appears ready to make a run at the Wimbledon title.
Since 2003 – Federer has won Wimbledon seven times — the last title coming in 2012. He was runner-up last year after losing an intense five set match against Djokovic. Murray won Wimbledon in 2013 and was the runner-up in 2012.
I know everyone loves an outsider. If you insist on targeting a player outside of the top four seeds – I recommend taking a long look at Grigor Dimitrov (20/1) and Tomas Berdych (28/1). One to avoid despite the big serve is Raonic, as he has fitness concerns.
Dimitrov is 18-11 this year and has been in terrible form as of late, however, he did push Murray to five sets in the Australian Open this year. He also made it to the SF in last year’s Wimbledon. I like him at 20/1, but not enough to bet on him to win outright.
Berdych is a big server, but he has never made it past the QF at Wimbledon, which is shocking.
Best Bet: Andy Murray 11/4 at Bovada.lv
Serena Williams favored to win the WTA Wimbledon title
The women’s draw at Wimbledon is always a minefield and trying to pick a winner can be tricky.Right away everyone assume Serena Williams will win the tournament. She has a great chance, but it’s no guarantee. Williams has won Wimbledon five times, but the last time was in 2012, which was also the last year she made it to the finals.
As I mentioned at the top of the preview – Williams is having a spectacular year. However, she hasn’t played in any grass events leading up to Wimbledon. After not making the QF the last two years at Wimbledon – you’d think she’d play a warm-up event.
Petra Kvitova is right behind Williams in the outright market and for good reason. Kvitova has won Wimbledon twice in the last three years (2012 & 2014). 2013 was a strange year at Wimbledon, as Marion Bartoli beat Sabine Lisicki in the finals.
Kvitova is having a rough year in majors. She’s 24-7 with two singles titles, but she was knocked out of the Australian Open in R3 and R4 in the French Open. She pulled out at Eastbourne this week, so she’ll have no grass court warm-up either.
Out of the two – Williams is definitely the best bet, but is she the best bet to win the women’s draw?
Here are the odds for the top ten seeds at Wimbledon:
- Seed 1: Serena Williams 7/4
- Seed 2: Petra Kvitova 7/2
- Seed 3: Simona Halep 12/1
- Seed 4: Maria Sharapova 7/1
- Seed 5: Caroline Wozniacki 28/1
- Seed 6: Lucie Safarova 20/1
- Seed 7: Ana Ivanovic 50/1
- Seed 8: Ekaterina Makarova 50/1
- Seed 9: Navarro Suarez OTB
- Seed 10: Angelique Kerber 40/1
Here’s an interesting stat – the top two seeds at Wimbledon have won the title three times in the last ten years.
Crazy isn’t it?
I was even surprised when I noticed that trend, but numbers don’t lie. The value has been on players outside of the top two on the women’s draw and this year I’m following the trend and going with a player that has some nice E/W value.
Halep has struggled in grand slams this year. She was knocked out early (R2) recently at the French Open and she was eliminated in the QF at the Australian Open. However, she did make the Wimbledon SF last year and she’s 32-8 this year with three titles.
Can she find her form on the grass again and make a run at a Wimbledon title? I believe so. Her stats on grass are excellent in recent years. Halep is 2-2 against Williams since 2014 and could beat her in the finals. At 12/1 Halep is my best bet.
Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka (9/1) are both interesting punts as well in the outright market, but I like Halep’s value.
Best Bet: Simona Halep 12/1 at Bovada.lv