NFL Week 1 spread bets & free picks – Kansas City vs. LA Chargers
Betting Line: Chargers -3.5 at Bovada
Over/Under: 48 points at Bovada
The AFC West gets right down to business in Week 1 of NFL play with the Chargers playing host to the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are the defending division champions and they lost in the Wild Card game last season. They have many of the same pieces in place from last season, but the big change is going with second year QB Patrick Mahomes, who takes over from Alex Smith.
Smith is now with the Washington Redskins and after a great season last year, he was allowed to walk, giving Mahomes big shoes to fill. KC has the offensive talent, but their defence struggled last season and this season the offence may have to carry the load.
Last season the Chiefs were 10-7 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 8-9 and the Chargers were 8-7-1` ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 4-12.
The Chargers finished 9-7 last season missing out on the playoffs, but after an 0-4 start they were one of the better 2nd half teams. They have Phillipe Rivers, who passed for over 4,500 yards last season, and a solid pass defense, but the run defense was the 2nd worst in the league last season and they lost both games facing the Chiefs.
Not only did the Chiefs beat the Chargers twice last season they have won the last eight games facing them.
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Mahomes looked pretty good in the pre-season, but he has little NFL game action. However, the tools around should help with WR Tyreek Hill, one of the best tight ends in the league in Travis Kelce and RB Kareem Hunt, who won the league rushing title last season as a rookie. On paper Kansas City is slated to have a dynamic offense, which ranked 5th in the league last season, but a lot will depend on how Mahomes performs under center.
While the Chiefs ony ranked 25th in the league last season in run defense and 29th in pass defense their D played pretty well in the two wins over the Chargers giving up a total of 23 points.
Many are picking the Chargers to challenge for the AFC West title after their strong finish last season. They have Rivers, a legit RB in Melvin Gordon, who rushed for over 1,100 yards last season, and the WR corps, which was banged up last season, is led by Keenan Robinson, who last season racked up almost 1,400 receiving yards.
Joey Bosa leads a defense that was Jekyll and Hyde last season ranking 3rd in the NFL against the pass while ranking 2nd to last defending the run. That has to change in this game, as last season in the two losses to Kansas City Hunt racked up a total of 327 rushing yards.
Kansas City betting trends
- KC is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
- KC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
- KC has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games overall
- The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Chargers
- The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against the Chargers.
LA Chargers betting trends
- LA is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September
- LA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
- LA has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games
Chiefs vs. Chargers betting predictions
Mahomes will have a good game for the Chiefs, but in La La Land Rivers will have the better one.
He will rack up the yards in the air, Gordon will help him out, and the Bolts’ defense will keep Hunt from killing them like he did last season.
The Chargers will win this game at home and cover the spread at Bovada giving 3.5 points.
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