THE first of three bye weeks in the AFL saw only six matches across the weekend of football, but that did not put a damper on the action, with several tightly-contested games.
The Pies solidified their position in the top four, the Power’s premiership aspirations lie in tatters and the Swans continue to go from strength to strength.
Let’s take a look at the moments that mattered and the market implications.
What happened to the AFL betting markets in round 11?
The round kicked off on Friday night with Geelong stunning the Power under lights at Adelaide Oval to the tune of 29 points.
The game was a titanic struggle for three quarters, with neither team able to gain the ascendancy on the scoreboard, but the Cats seemed to have the Power rattled, with their usual run-and-gun style stifled on the back of a brilliant performance from 299 game veteran Corey Enright.
The win leaves the Cats level on points with Richmond who sit in eighth position on the ladder. Geelong next plays Melbourne at Etihad Stadium while the Tigers play host to the high-flying Eagles, in all likelihood, the two teams will swap positions by the end of round 12.
The $1.45 on offer from Sportsbet for the Cats to make the final eight looks like a sound bet, with the Cats starting to hit top gear.
The loss leaves the Power in the precarious position of 10th, a game and percentage outside the finals race with their bye to come.
Port have the worst percentage of the teams placed first to tenth, and unless they are able to make a dramatic turnaround, look likely to miss the finals after being one of the pre-season fancies.
Port are currently listed at $1.55 with Sportsbet to miss the top eight.
The Saturday slog in the wet between the Suns and the Dockers will not go down as one of the best games of the season, but it will certainly be remembered as a thriller with the Dockers just prevailing by seven points.
Both teams combined totals failed to reach 100 points in the brutal encounter, where the wasteful Dockers were almost left to rue their sloppiness in front of goal, kicking a dismal 17 behinds. Amazingly, the Suns kicked more goals in the match than their counterparts.
Fremantle were again led superbly by sublime superstar Nat Fyfe, who amassed 31 touches – 21 of which were contested – 11 clearances and a third of his team’s goals; an effort that is certain to gain him another three votes in the Brownlow.
Fyfe has moved even further into outright favourite for the Brownlow, coming in as short as $1.70 for the medal with William Hill. A more lucrative market for punters to look at is whether or not Fyfe will garner 35 or more votes over the course of the season.
Sportsbet currently have odds of $2.10 for Fyfe to match or surpass the 35 vote mark.
Saturday night at Etihad Stadium was the venue for the Swans and the Kangaroos, with Sydney withstanding a second half surge from the Roos to secure a 16 point win and cement their position inside the top-two.
The Swans led the game from start to finish, and were able to get the margin out past six goals in the second and third quarter, only for North Melbourne to rally back but ultimately fall short.
Lance Franklin was again prolific for his side, booting four goals, including the game sealer late in the last quarter from outside 50. The game-high goal tally moved the man they call ‘Buddy’ into outright second on the Coleman medal leader board, nine majors behind league leader; West Coast’s Josh Kennedy.
Sportsbet’s quote of $4 represents fantastic value for Franklin who has won the medal on three separate occasions already.
The match that was billed as the game of the round, Collingwood and GWS did not exactly pan out as planned, with the Pies dismantling an injury rattled Giants outfit, running away 42 point winners.
Both teams played an attacking brand of football for the first half, with the Giants matching their opponents for two quarters, but eventually succumbed to a spate of injuries, including potentially long-term afflictions to key defenders Phil Davis and Joel Patfull.
The loss of the two key posts was pivotal in the match, as it allowed key forward Travis Cloke to exploit the inexperienced and undersized Matthew Buntine, who has only played a handful of games at senior level. Cloke ended the match with five goals and was among Collingwood’s best for the day.
It was another sparkling performance from Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury, who one of his side’s best on the day. The Pies’ skipper is at $15 via William Hill to win the Brownlow medal, which looms as an astute each-way bet given Pendlebury’s capacity to amass votes.
Injury report from round 11
Several causalities coming out of Friday night’s clash, with both sides feeling the effects of a brutal encounter.
Geelong’s victory came at a cost with emerging ruckman Rhys Stanley and veteran on-baller James Kelly both set to miss at least a month of football after sustaining ankle and foot injuries respectively.
Kelly left the game early in the piece after twisting his ankle under and opponent, while Stanley was benched late in the third after dominating the game.
Port Adelaide speedster Matthew White is likely to spend the next month on the sidelines after severely straining his hamstring. The Power will look to take a conservative approach with White who has missed significant chunks of football throughout his career with soft tissue issues.
The Giants are set to be without a host of stars for this week’s crunch game with North Melbourne, most significantly defenders Joel Patfull and Phil Davis.
Davis sustained an ankle injury midway through Sunday’s loss to the Pies and will miss at least a month of football, while Patfull is set to spend a similar amount of time off the park after injuring two ribs and puncturing a lung after a nasty collision with a teammate.
Steven Coniglio and Shane Mumford are also in doubt for the match against the Roos, after Coniglio strained his AC joint, while Mumford rolled his ankle late in Sunday’s loss.
USUALLY after eight rounds of football a picture will begin to take shape of how the final eight will look come September.
This year seems to be an aberration.
Heading into round 9, there is a number of teams still in the running for the finals, with teams outside the top eight belting down the door and teams inside hanging on for dear life.
The Dockers remain undefeated with no end to their streak in sight, while the GWS Giants do not just look destined for a finals berth, but the top-four beckons after an astonishing opening two months to the 2015 season from the AFL’s newest franchise.
Plenty to get through this week, so let’s find some winners.
Swans vs. Blues
Friday, May 29th, 7:50pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
Sydney – $1.92 (-72.5)
Carlton- $1.92 (+72.5)
Two teams on opposite ends of the AFL spectrum kick off round nine, with the Swans hosting the Blues in a match that could get very ugly, very early.
The Swans are in sparkling form, winning their last three matches including a Grand Final rematch with Hawthorn that went right down to the final siren which has them sitting in third position on the ladder.
Sydney have made just one change at the selection table, with Swans’ coach John Longmuire handing a debut to Daniel Robinson, while impressive youngster Jake Lloyd has been omitted.
Carlton officially hit rock bottom over the last fortnight, both figuratively and literally with the club in last place on the ladder, a senior coach down and absolutely bereft of hope.
The Blues will be without a trio of superstars, with captain Marc Murphy, dual Brownlow medallist Chris Judd and former number one draft pick Bryce Gibbs to injury, with Lachie Henderson, Andrew Carrazzo and Andrew Walker set to take their places.
Unfortunately we are set to see another Friday night fizzer with a triple figure margin very much on the cards. If the Blues are able to escape the match with a result anywhere under 60 points it will be considered a win.
Tip: Sydney to win 60+ $1.50 via Sportsbet
Exotic: Luke Parker to have 30 or more disposals – $2.90 via Sportsbet
Hawks vs. Suns
Saturday, May 30th, 1:45pm, Aurora Stadium
Hawthorn – $1.91 (-70.5)
Gold Coast – $1.91 (+70.5)
The first Saturday game of round nine sees the reigning premiers facing arguably the worst-performing team over the opening eight rounds.
Hawthorn will be looking to get their names back on the winner’s list after suffering a heart-breaking loss to Sydney and now sit in the precarious position of 4-4 with a position in the top four in jeopardy, even at this early stage.
The Hawks welcome back inspirational captain Luke Hodge from a three-match suspension but lose dashing defender Grant Birchall.
Gold Coast have been in free fall, and had it not been for a fortuitous fixture that saw them play a severely depleted Brisbane earlier in the season, they could very well be winless on the bottom of the ladder.
The Suns will boosted by the return of key big-man Steven May and livewire forward Jack Martin, both of whom will add an enormous level of class and poise to a side that has desperately lacked in both areas all season.
Both teams are in dire need of a win for vastly difference reasons; but expect Hawthorn to trounce the Suns and add some valuable percentage to the four premiership points they are certain to bank.
Tip: Hawthorn to win – line bet -70.5 $1.90 via Sportbet
Exotic: Most disposals group B – Shaun Burgoyne $4.50 via William Hill
Demons vs. Power
Saturday, May 30th, 1:40pm, Traeger Park (Darwin)
Melbourne – $1.91 (+15.5)
Port Adelaide- $1.91 (-15.5)
The second match Saturday afternoon sees Melbourne ‘host’ the Power in Darwin, the perfect venue to showcase an indigenous round match.
The Demons will be flying high after a spirited win over the Western Bulldogs, and will hold no fear in facing last year’s preliminary finalists.
The Demons welcome back stoutly built midfielder Jack Viney and born-again defender Neville Jetta, omitting Aiden Riley and Ben Newton in the process.
Port Adelaide has lost several key players to injury, with Patrick Ryder and Jackson Trengove scumming to achilles and ankle injuries respectively, handing Matthew Broadbent and Paul Stewart passages straight back into the senior team.
Both teams are sitting on just three wins for the season, and a loss to either side will just about rule them out of September action.
After starting the season as one of the main premiership threats, the Power have been bitterly disappointing thus far, and desperately need a win if they are to mount any kind of challenge on the flag.
Expect the Power to bounce back against the Dees and regain a foothold in the race towards the finals.
Tip: Port Adelaide to win – line bet -15.5 $1.91 via William Hill
Exotic: Most disposals/most goal– Travis Boak Jay Schultz $14 via William Hill
Bulldogs vs. Giants
Saturday, May 23rd, 4:35pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs – $1.92 (+20.5)
GWS – $1.92 (-20.5)
Saturday’s final afternoon game sees the red-hot GWS Giants travelling to face the sporadic Dogs – the first match that will pit the former Western Bulldogs captain Ryan Griffin against his former side.
The Giants are in the best form of their infantile career, after easily accounting for Adelaide at home to secure their first ever three game win streak, and will be looking to make it four against the Bulldogs who suffered a shock loss to the Demons at the MCG last week.
GWS have brought emerging midfielders Lachie Whitfield and Aiden Corr for the crunch match, with Zac Williams and Phil Davis departing the team via an omission and suspension respectively.
The Dogs have made wholesale changes at the selection table with six changes, including losing last year’s leading goal scorer Stewart Crameri and Brett Goodes to potentially long term injuries, but have regained Will Minson and Jarrad Grant.
The Dogs’ early season form was terrific; chalking up fantastic wins against Sydney and Adelaide, but have fallen in a hole badly in the last fortnight.
The Giants will capitalise on this and post their fourth win in a row, consolidating their place in the top-four.
Tip:GWS to win 1-39 point margin $2.10 via William Hill
Exotic: Most disposals group B – Ryan Griffin $5 via William Hill
Tigers vs. Bombers
Saturday, May 30th, 7:10pm, Melbourne Cricket Ground
Richmond – $1.91 (-1.5)
Essendon – $1.91 (+1.5)
For the first time since its inception, the Dreamtime at the G will pit Essendon and Richmond against each other in a match that will have significant finals implications.
Both teams are locked on points in 8th and 9th positions on the ladder, with the winner of the match potentially going a game clear inside the finals.
The Tigers have roared back into finals contention after a lacklustre start to the season, winning two consecutive matches against Collingwood – a team they had failed to beat in almost five years and Port Adelaide at the scene of last year’s elimination final embarrassment.
The Dons are back up and firing after some less than spectacular performances, putting Brisbane to the sword to the tune of ten goals last week at Etihad, and looked to be back to their best.
The Tigers only have the once forced change, with Liam McBean making his way back into the senior line up at the expense of Ty Vickery, who will miss with a knee injury.
The Bombers are unchanged.
The Bombers had a relatively easy match up last week after battling in the first half, and will go into this match full of confidence after owning the fixture in recent years. Richmond battled hard to get the win against Port, and will have to combat a six day turnaround as well as the residual effects of an Adelaide Oval slugfest.
For these reasons we expect the Dons to make it two in a row and firmly entrench themselves within the eight.
Tip: Essendon to win – 1-24 margin $3.30 via Sportsbet
Exotic: Most disposals group A – Dyson Heppell $4.75 via William Hill
Yiooken Award winner: Adam Cooney – $34 via Sportsbet
Crows vs. Dockers
Saturday, May 30th, 7.40pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide – $1.92 (+21.5)
Fremantle – $1.92 (-21.5)
Saturday night sees one of the more intriguing matches of the round with the Adelaide Crows hosting the Fremantle Dockers at Adelaide Oval.
The undefeated Dockers are looking to make in nine wins in on the trot and are very well placed to do so, after dismantling North Melbourne at home last week.
The Crows are in a bit of a lull after dropping two of the last four matches against teams in a similar ladder position. The league is slowly starting to find out the Crows may not be up for September action this season.
The Crows welcome back veteran defender Ricky Henderson after Sam Kerridge failed to overcome an ankle injury.
The Dockers are unchanged.
The Crows will need a big performance from captain and full forward Taylor Walker, who despite kicking seven goals in the last two matches, has little impact around the ground. The man they call Tex needs to impose himself on games more and involve his teammates.
The Dockers are in franchise best form, and it is hard to see where they will lose a game in the near future, but you can guarantee it will not be Saturday night.
Tip:Fremantle to win $1.30 via Sportsbet
Exotic:Most disposals grounp A Nat Fyfe $3.25 via William Hill
Lions vs. Saints
Sunday, May 31st, 1:10pm, GABBA
Brisbane – $1.91 (-9.5)
St Kilda – $1.91 (+9.5)
Only 5-10 years ago these two teams were battling it out for AFL supremacy, now they sit towards the bottom of the ladder in the midst of a rebuild phase that could take years.
The Lions’ early season form was lamentable, but after spirited wins against Carlton away from home then against Port at the GABBA, there is suddenly spring in the step of the Queenslanders.
The Saints have been up-and-down as expected throughout the season, but more often than not they have been highly competitive on the back of maximum effort from the sometimes limited talent levels their young list possesses.
Both teams have named extended benches with only Brisbane’s Daniel McStay and St Kilda’s Sam Fisher the confirmed outs at this stage.
The Saints will present an enormous challenge to the young Lions, but now captain Tom Rockliff has some continuity under his belt, the Brisbane midfield is starting to emerge as one of the best in the competition, and because of this, they should be able to take control through the middle and own the game.
Expect Brisbane to record their third win of the season.
Tip:Brisbane to win 1-39 $2.15 via William Hill
Exotic:First goal – Paul Chapman $15 via Sportsbet
Magpies vs. Kangaroos
Sunday, May 30th, 3:20pm, Melbourne Cricket Ground
Collingwood – $1.92 (+5.5)
North Melbourne – $1.92 (-5.5)
Battle of the strips takes place on Sunday afternoon with the Magpies hosting the Kangaroos at the MCG with the Pies looking to maintain a healthy dominance over their Blue and White opponents.
The Pies have won six of the last eight clashes between the two sides, and bring in the much better form to the contest after destroying a pathetic Gold Coast Suns outfit last weekend in captain Scott Pendlebury’s 200th game as a Magpie.
The Roos came crashing down to earth in a big way, getting comprehensively outplayed by the Dockers in the West and will need to turn their form around very quickly if they are to make any sort of impact here.
The Pies have named an extended bench for the Sunday afternoon clash, with Alan Toovey and Sam Dwyer potential ins. No outs have been confirmed at this stage.
Ben Jacobs and Mason Wood are the two men to make way for the Kangaroos, with captain Andrew Swallow and big Ben Brown their likely replacements.
Collingwood have made a real impact so far this season playing a fantastic brand of team footy, but have been found wanting against some of the better quality teams. North Melbourne should present a huge challenge and possess enough firepower up forward to trouble a depleted back six for the Pies that will have trouble containing all the avenues to goal that Brad Scott has at his disposal.
North Melbourne should break their Collingwood hoodoo and get themselves back into finals contention.
Tip: North Melbourne to win $1.70 via Sportsbet
Exotic: First goal scorer – Jarrad Waite $11 via Sportsbet
Sunday, May 30th, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast – $1.91 (-18.5)
Geelong – $1.92 (+18.5)
The West Coast Eagles and the Geelong Cats finish off round nine at Domain Stadium in Australia’s west with the Adam Simpson’s men looking to remain in a top-two position while the Cats are just looking to keep in touch with the top eight.
The Eagles are flying with only two losses to their name, and will bring in immense confidence into the match after eviscerating St Kilda by over ten goals.
The Cats are bringing in terrific form with two wins from their last three, including a crushing 77 point victory over Carlton last Friday night.
Only one forced change for either side, with West Coast’s Elliot Yeo copping a one match suspension for striking, with Scott Lycett his potential replacement.
Both teams are bringing in decent form into the match, but it is hard to see just how the Cats can win over in the West, given the Eagles rampant home form.
Tip: Eagles to win 40+ @3.50 via William Hill
Exotic: First goal scorer – Josh Kennedy $7 via Sportsbet
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