There’s no shock that the New England Patriots have the best odds to win the 2019 Super Bowl. Can the ageless Tom Brady lead the Pats back to the promised land?
NFL fans looking for a betting angle on the upcoming season are advised to bet against Tom Brady’s age in the coming 2018/19 season.
A look at his game log from last season suggests that he could tire in the upcoming season more easily than in years gone by.
That should go without saying since Brady will turn 41-years old early next month. However, some betting odds that have a lot to do with Brady are so long that his relationship to New England’s success is worth an examination.
Last season, Brady started the season strong and threw for over 300 yards in four of his first five games. After that, he only threw over 300 yards in a game twice more.
American football is a sport where individual stats are related to a large degree to the performance of other players and coaching strategies.
The reason why Brady’s throwing yards declined in the 2nd half of last season is a tough question.
But his age can’t be ignored and it’s certainly worth taking note that his two worst games by throwing yards were the last two games of the season. That could be due to him fatiguing or New England management realising that they shouldn’t overuse Brady’s arm. Either way, it could be that the Patriots end up reliant on runningbacks — or even their back-up QB — a little more often in 2018/19 than in the past.
If you are anticipating that Brady might decline or pick up an injury in the next season then there is some value to highlight in some NFL markets. For instance, betway offers +1000 on New England Not To Make The Playoffs.
That’s a phrase that can’t be associated with the Patriots in most NFL-commentary circles. But it doesn’t sound so far-fetched when you remember that sometimes even 10-6 teams don’t make the playoffs in the competitive NFL.
What would it really take for the Pats not to get in? Brady, at the age of 41, misses a few games and the Pats go 0-3? They play well otherwise but still only go 9-4 in the other games for a below-the-cut 9-7 mark.
Betting against a 41-year old QB certainly isn’t a dumb move to make when working with odds as long as +1000.
Recommendation: New England Not To Make the Playoffs at +1000
Super Bowl LII special player bets make for interesting action for punters this year.
The battle for MVP in Super Bowl LII is the main player special market for Super Bowl LII, and there are some wildly-different odds for some key players.
Football is a team sport, and there’s no ‘I’ in team, but there’s a ‘ME.’
Likewise, the bets for the performance of individual players can be more fun than bets on the actual teams, and it’s the Super Bowl LII MVP bet that the most sportsbooks are interested in carrying.
Tom Brady punters don’t fear hand injury
Who is the most-likely player to be the MVP in Super Bowl LII?
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to say Tom Brady.
Handicappers are so confident in this that his recent throwing hand injury in practice barely put a dent in the betting lines.
|Tom Brady MVP odds||-125||-125||-163||-155|
Tom Brady is an incredible-short favorite to win the MVP honors, which makes it a pretty boring bet.
However, if you’re a fan, then -125 is the best line you’re going to be able to find. The guy already has the record for Super Bowl MVP awards at four, but his hand injury could make him rely more on the rest of his offense, particularly Gronkowski, Lewis and Cooks.
Unfortunately, there aren’t any markets on how many people will be in on the conspiracy to cheat in this year’s Super Bowl. We’d take -150 on the number of ball handlers plus one.
Eagles backup QB Nick Foles has a surprising MVP line
It’s usually one of the quarterbacks who wins the MVP trophy in the Super Bowl, and for Eagles backup QB Nick Foles, he has the second-best line at virtually all of the sportsbooks.
|Nick Foles MVP odds||+325||+350||+550||+300|
Does the line of +550 at bet365 for Nick Foles stand out to you as much as it stands out to us? It might be a glitch in the matrix, especially since they only have the Eagles as a +180 underdog, and there’s no guarantee that he’s not going to completely choke, but it’s worth noting that for 28 of the 51 previous Super Bowl games, the winning team’s quarterback has been the MVP.
Rob Gronkowski and other distant thirds
If you want to bet on a long shot that could pay off huge, then bet on
no cheating scandal happening this year someone who isn’t a QB. Gronkowski is leading the way for the top non-QB pick, but there are some other numbers that could turn into a major payday depending on how the game unfolds.
Bets on Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and other non-QB players for Super Bowl MVP are difficult for sportsbooks to handicap, which means you have some serious chances to find a bet that will prove profitable.
|Rob Gronkowski MVP odds||+850||+1200||+1200||+1000|
|Dion Lewis MVP odds||+1800||+1200||+1400||+1600|
|Brandin Cooks MVP odds||+2200||+1600||+1200||+1600|
Other than Gronkowski, the lines we see that are looking particularly interesting are New England’s running back Dion Lewis at +1800 and their wide receiver Brandin Cooks at a whooping +2200, both at Bovada. If you want a shot at a big win, you could combine one of these with betting that the Patriots won’t beat the spread since winning by just a few points is more likely to lead to a non-QB MVP.
MAJOR developments and drama surround Super Bowl LII with market odds moving after every dramatic turn.
The NFL Super Bowl is one of the most important sporting events in terms of overall betting volume in the world, and because it only happens once each year, there’s a tremendous amount of focus on each little thing that happens that could affect the result.
Things are pretty calm some years, but in 2018, the events leading up to this big game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots have been anything but smooth sailing.
All of this drama means you have odds moving back and forth, which gives you more opportunities to find a bet to beat the bookies.
Carson Wentz isn’t coming back this year
The starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles went down earlier this season with an ACL injury, and the big story ever since is about whether or not he’ll make it back in time for the Super Bowl.
Thankfully for him, he had successful surgery back in December. However, there’s no way he’s going to be available by February 4, the day of the championship game. This is bad news for a team that would likely be the underdog anyway, but a recent development evens the odds a bit more.
Nick Fowles, Wentz’s replacement at QB, is paying +160 at Bovada to throw the first touch down pass of the game.
Tom Brady injures his throwing hand
In practice the week before their game with the Jacksonville Jaguars (which determined which team went to the Super Bowl), New England’s star quarterback Tom Brady injured his hand in practice.
Brady had a collision with running back Rex Burkhead that bent his thumb backwards on his throwing hand in a very serious way, and it was so bad that it required at least 10 stitches. He was able to get the win against Jacksonville in spite of this injury, but it could still means he’s likely to not be 100 percent once Super Bowl LII comes around.
Current Super Bowl LII market odds
As it stands now, after details of Brady’s injury has been made public and with knowledge that Wentz will have no chance of returning, most oddsmakers have the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite.
For the money line, we’re seeing everything from +165/-192.31 at Bovada to +180/-210 at BetOnline.ag, but no one is really breaking away from New England as the favorite.
With that having been said, the Super Bowl always has a lot of other bets available, and the over/under for the total points scored is one of those wagers where we are seeing some divergence between the different bookies to a certain degree.
BetOnline.ag has the money line for the Patriots scoring under 27 at -120, but Bovada has the same bet at even money. There are similar differences for other combinations, so there are some good reasons to shop around if you’re trying to find the best lines for these types of wagers.